Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0 or greater event—by June 30 reflects the extreme rarity of such occurrences, with only five verified globally since 1900 per USGS records, averaging less than once per decade. No M9+ quakes have struck in 2026, with the largest recent events being a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, both typical for active subduction zones without signaling escalation to mega status. Current USGS monitoring shows normal global seismic activity levels, lacking precursors like foreshock swarms or strain accumulation spikes in high-risk areas such as Cascadia or Nankai Trough, where 30-year probabilities hover around 70-80% but annual odds remain under 3%. Traders await ongoing real-time data from USGS feeds, with model uncertainties emphasizing that short-term forecasts cannot pinpoint such cataclysmic events.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
예
$45,216 거래량
$45,216 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$45,216 거래량
$45,216 거래량
2026.06.30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0 or greater event—by June 30 reflects the extreme rarity of such occurrences, with only five verified globally since 1900 per USGS records, averaging less than once per decade. No M9+ quakes have struck in 2026, with the largest recent events being a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, both typical for active subduction zones without signaling escalation to mega status. Current USGS monitoring shows normal global seismic activity levels, lacking precursors like foreshock swarms or strain accumulation spikes in high-risk areas such as Cascadia or Nankai Trough, where 30-year probabilities hover around 70-80% but annual odds remain under 3%. Traders await ongoing real-time data from USGS feeds, with model uncertainties emphasizing that short-term forecasts cannot pinpoint such cataclysmic events.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
거래량
$45,216종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0 or greater event—by June 30 reflects the extreme rarity of such occurrences, with only five verified globally since 1900 per USGS records, averaging less than once per decade. No M9+ quakes have struck in 2026, with the largest recent events being a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, both typical for active subduction zones without signaling escalation to mega status. Current USGS monitoring shows normal global seismic activity levels, lacking precursors like foreshock swarms or strain accumulation spikes in high-risk areas such as Cascadia or Nankai Trough, where 30-year probabilities hover around 70-80% but annual odds remain under 3%. Traders await ongoing real-time data from USGS feeds, with model uncertainties emphasizing that short-term forecasts cannot pinpoint such cataclysmic events.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$45,216종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 80% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0 or greater event—by June 30 reflects the extreme rarity of such occurrences, with only five verified globally since 1900 per USGS records, averaging less than once per decade. No M9+ quakes have struck in 2026, with the largest recent events being a M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, both typical for active subduction zones without signaling escalation to mega status. Current USGS monitoring shows normal global seismic activity levels, lacking precursors like foreshock swarms or strain accumulation spikes in high-risk areas such as Cascadia or Nankai Trough, where 30-year probabilities hover around 70-80% but annual odds remain under 3%. Traders await ongoing real-time data from USGS feeds, with model uncertainties emphasizing that short-term forecasts cannot pinpoint such cataclysmic events.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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