Incumbent Lloyd Smucker (R) dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District, reflecting the seat's Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid an R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index in conservative Lancaster and York counties. Smucker's consistent 61-63% general election margins since 2018, over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, and alignment with GOP priorities bolster his position against Democrat Nancy Mannion, whose campaign holds just $15,000. Sarah Klimm's March 3 Democratic primary dropout consolidated the field ahead of the May 19 closed primaries, reducing competition; late scandals or turnout shifts could alter odds, but historical base rates favor the incumbent.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
12%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$1,355 거래량
88%
Democratic Party
$789 거래량
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Lloyd Smucker (R) dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District, reflecting the seat's Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid an R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index in conservative Lancaster and York counties. Smucker's consistent 61-63% general election margins since 2018, over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, and alignment with GOP priorities bolster his position against Democrat Nancy Mannion, whose campaign holds just $15,000. Sarah Klimm's March 3 Democratic primary dropout consolidated the field ahead of the May 19 closed primaries, reducing competition; late scandals or turnout shifts could alter odds, but historical base rates favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$2,143종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Lloyd Smucker (R) dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District, reflecting the seat's Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid an R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index in conservative Lancaster and York counties. Smucker's consistent 61-63% general election margins since 2018, over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, and alignment with GOP priorities bolster his position against Democrat Nancy Mannion, whose campaign holds just $15,000. Sarah Klimm's March 3 Democratic primary dropout consolidated the field ahead of the May 19 closed primaries, reducing competition; late scandals or turnout shifts could alter odds, but historical base rates favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$2,143종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Lloyd Smucker (R) dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District, reflecting the seat's Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball amid an R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index in conservative Lancaster and York counties. Smucker's consistent 61-63% general election margins since 2018, over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, and alignment with GOP priorities bolster his position against Democrat Nancy Mannion, whose campaign holds just $15,000. Sarah Klimm's March 3 Democratic primary dropout consolidated the field ahead of the May 19 closed primaries, reducing competition; late scandals or turnout shifts could alter odds, but historical base rates favor the incumbent.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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