US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed on April 11 without agreement, leaving a fragile two-week truce in doubt amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and prior US military deployments, including paratroopers and Marines in March. President Trump declared on April 15 that the United States is no longer conducting military operations against Iran, signaling de-escalation and a pivot to diplomacy hosted in Pakistan, with new negotiation rounds expected soon. No official US announcements have confirmed military coordination or support for Iranian opposition groups like those led by exiled figures such as Reza Pahlavi, despite opinion calls for empowerment and reports of informal contacts. Senate rejection of war powers limits underscores congressional deference to executive foreign policy, keeping regime change scenarios speculative as traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$452,574 거래량
2026.04.30
4월 30일
4%
$452,574 거래량
4월 30일
$221,414 거래량
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed on April 11 without agreement, leaving a fragile two-week truce in doubt amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and prior US military deployments, including paratroopers and Marines in March. President Trump declared on April 15 that the United States is no longer conducting military operations against Iran, signaling de-escalation and a pivot to diplomacy hosted in Pakistan, with new negotiation rounds expected soon. No official US announcements have confirmed military coordination or support for Iranian opposition groups like those led by exiled figures such as Reza Pahlavi, despite opinion calls for empowerment and reports of informal contacts. Senate rejection of war powers limits underscores congressional deference to executive foreign policy, keeping regime change scenarios speculative as traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
거래량
$452,574종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed on April 11 without agreement, leaving a fragile two-week truce in doubt amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and prior US military deployments, including paratroopers and Marines in March. President Trump declared on April 15 that the United States is no longer conducting military operations against Iran, signaling de-escalation and a pivot to diplomacy hosted in Pakistan, with new negotiation rounds expected soon. No official US announcements have confirmed military coordination or support for Iranian opposition groups like those led by exiled figures such as Reza Pahlavi, despite opinion calls for empowerment and reports of informal contacts. Senate rejection of war powers limits underscores congressional deference to executive foreign policy, keeping regime change scenarios speculative as traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms that the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Iranian opposition groups by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
“Iranian opposition groups” refers to organized political, paramilitary, insurgent, or resistance groups that publicly oppose the current government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and seek to alter, replace, or overthrow it. This includes groups operating inside or outside Iran that claim to represent opposition to the current governing authorities.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$452,574종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed on April 11 without agreement, leaving a fragile two-week truce in doubt amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and prior US military deployments, including paratroopers and Marines in March. President Trump declared on April 15 that the United States is no longer conducting military operations against Iran, signaling de-escalation and a pivot to diplomacy hosted in Pakistan, with new negotiation rounds expected soon. No official US announcements have confirmed military coordination or support for Iranian opposition groups like those led by exiled figures such as Reza Pahlavi, despite opinion calls for empowerment and reports of informal contacts. Senate rejection of war powers limits underscores congressional deference to executive foreign policy, keeping regime change scenarios speculative as traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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