Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's January 3 military operation capturing Nicolás Maduro and subsequent formal recognition of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president in March. This sidelined the opposition, despite Machado's 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, her January meeting with President Trump—where she presented her medal but received no endorsement—and U.S. lifting of sanctions on Rodríguez in early April. State Department coordination emphasizes elections under the current transitional framework rather than opposition leadership, with White House frustrations over Machado's positions reinforcing the status quo amid pushback from Maduro loyalists. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or opposition electoral gains could alter odds, though barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's January 3 military operation capturing Nicolás Maduro and subsequent formal recognition of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president in March. This sidelined the opposition, despite Machado's 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, her January meeting with President Trump—where she presented her medal but received no endorsement—and U.S. lifting of sanctions on Rodríguez in early April. State Department coordination emphasizes elections under the current transitional framework rather than opposition leadership, with White House frustrations over Machado's positions reinforcing the status quo amid pushback from Maduro loyalists. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or opposition electoral gains could alter odds, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
거래량
$2,846종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's January 3 military operation capturing Nicolás Maduro and subsequent formal recognition of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president in March. This sidelined the opposition, despite Machado's 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, her January meeting with President Trump—where she presented her medal but received no endorsement—and U.S. lifting of sanctions on Rodríguez in early April. State Department coordination emphasizes elections under the current transitional framework rather than opposition leadership, with White House frustrations over Machado's positions reinforcing the status quo amid pushback from Maduro loyalists. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or opposition electoral gains could alter odds, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$2,846종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's January 3 military operation capturing Nicolás Maduro and subsequent formal recognition of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president in March. This sidelined the opposition, despite Machado's 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, her January meeting with President Trump—where she presented her medal but received no endorsement—and U.S. lifting of sanctions on Rodríguez in early April. State Department coordination emphasizes elections under the current transitional framework rather than opposition leadership, with White House frustrations over Machado's positions reinforcing the status quo amid pushback from Maduro loyalists. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or opposition electoral gains could alter odds, though barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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