Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+), amid weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by mid-summer, which typically increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, following Helene's Category 4 strike on Florida's Big Bend in 2024. Historical data shows continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls occur roughly once every 3-5 years on average, with NOAA's upcoming May outlook likely to refine these projections as pre-season patterns emerge.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$324,380 거래량
$324,380 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$324,380 거래량
$324,380 거래량
2026.12.31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+), amid weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by mid-summer, which typically increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, following Helene's Category 4 strike on Florida's Big Bend in 2024. Historical data shows continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls occur roughly once every 3-5 years on average, with NOAA's upcoming May outlook likely to refine these projections as pre-season patterns emerge.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
거래량
$324,380종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+), amid weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by mid-summer, which typically increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, following Helene's Category 4 strike on Florida's Big Bend in 2024. Historical data shows continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls occur roughly once every 3-5 years on average, with NOAA's upcoming May outlook likely to refine these projections as pre-season patterns emerge.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
거래량
$324,380종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+), amid weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by mid-summer, which typically increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, following Helene's Category 4 strike on Florida's Big Bend in 2024. Historical data shows continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls occur roughly once every 3-5 years on average, with NOAA's upcoming May outlook likely to refine these projections as pre-season patterns emerge.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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