Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.3% against charges, driven by U.S. officials' March 31 clarification that President Gustavo Petro faces no criminal charges from ongoing DOJ probes in New York, despite early-stage investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties surfacing in late March reporting. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan and Brooklyn examined preliminary claims of campaign funding links and bribe solicitations, with DEA designating Petro a priority target, but no indictments have followed in the subsequent two weeks. With just two weeks until the April 30 resolution, procedural hurdles, diplomatic sensitivities toward a sitting foreign leader, and historical rarity of rapid charging sustain high confidence in "No." A sudden evidence breakthrough or escalation could theoretically shift odds, though barriers remain substantial.