**No meteoroid impact releasing 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy is expected in 2026.** Comprehensive surveys by NASA and partner observatories have identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses that could deliver this yield, which typically requires a roughly 20–30 meter stony body. All predicted impacts this year involve much smaller objects (under 10 m) that burn up harmlessly in the atmosphere, consistent with recent events such as the March 2026 Cleveland bolide (estimated ~0.25 kt). Close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 passed safely without impact risk. While an undetected object could theoretically arrive, the combination of ongoing monitoring, low historical frequency of 100 kt events, and absence of any warning signals supports the market’s 96.7 % “No” consensus. Resolution hinges on official post-event energy estimates from infrasound or satellite data through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No meteoroid impact releasing 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy is expected in 2026.**
Comprehensive surveys by NASA and partner observatories have identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses that could deliver this yield, which typically requires a roughly 20–30 meter stony body. All predicted impacts this year involve much smaller objects (under 10 m) that burn up harmlessly in the atmosphere, consistent with recent events such as the March 2026 Cleveland bolide (estimated ~0.25 kt). Close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 passed safely without impact risk. While an undetected object could theoretically arrive, the combination of ongoing monitoring, low historical frequency of 100 kt events, and absence of any warning signals supports the market’s 96.7 % “No” consensus. Resolution hinges on official post-event energy estimates from infrasound or satellite data through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,835Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No meteoroid impact releasing 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy is expected in 2026.**
Comprehensive surveys by NASA and partner observatories have identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses that could deliver this yield, which typically requires a roughly 20–30 meter stony body. All predicted impacts this year involve much smaller objects (under 10 m) that burn up harmlessly in the atmosphere, consistent with recent events such as the March 2026 Cleveland bolide (estimated ~0.25 kt). Close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 passed safely without impact risk. While an undetected object could theoretically arrive, the combination of ongoing monitoring, low historical frequency of 100 kt events, and absence of any warning signals supports the market’s 96.7 % “No” consensus. Resolution hinges on official post-event energy estimates from infrasound or satellite data through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$8,835Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No meteoroid impact releasing 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy is expected in 2026.** Comprehensive surveys by NASA and partner observatories have identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses that could deliver this yield, which typically requires a roughly 20–30 meter stony body. All predicted impacts this year involve much smaller objects (under 10 m) that burn up harmlessly in the atmosphere, consistent with recent events such as the March 2026 Cleveland bolide (estimated ~0.25 kt). Close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 passed safely without impact risk. While an undetected object could theoretically arrive, the combination of ongoing monitoring, low historical frequency of 100 kt events, and absence of any warning signals supports the market’s 96.7 % “No” consensus. Resolution hinges on official post-event energy estimates from infrasound or satellite data through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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