Recent polling shows a tight five-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD clustered between roughly 12% and 21%. Under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system, the Abgeordnetenhaus starts at a minimum of 130 seats but expands through overhang and leveling mandates when parties secure more direct constituency wins than their second-vote share warrants across the twelve districts. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats largely due to CDU constituency strength; similar dynamics this cycle depend on district-level results and whether smaller parties clear the 5% threshold. Trader prices remain closely bunched because modest shifts in first-vote outcomes or turnout can alter the overhang total by several seats without changing the overall party balance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano163+ 23%
<143 22%
153–157 20%
158–162 20%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
<143
22%
143–147
12%
148–152
18%
153–157
20%
158–162
20%
163+
23%
163+ 23%
<143 22%
153–157 20%
158–162 20%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$0 Wol.
22%
143–147
$0 Wol.
12%
148–152
$0 Wol.
18%
153–157
$0 Wol.
20%
158–162
$0 Wol.
20%
163+
$0 Wol.
23%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a tight five-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD clustered between roughly 12% and 21%. Under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system, the Abgeordnetenhaus starts at a minimum of 130 seats but expands through overhang and leveling mandates when parties secure more direct constituency wins than their second-vote share warrants across the twelve districts. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats largely due to CDU constituency strength; similar dynamics this cycle depend on district-level results and whether smaller parties clear the 5% threshold. Trader prices remain closely bunched because modest shifts in first-vote outcomes or turnout can alter the overhang total by several seats without changing the overall party balance.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a tight five-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD clustered between roughly 12% and 21%. Under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system, the Abgeordnetenhaus starts at a minimum of 130 seats but expands through overhang and leveling mandates when parties secure more direct constituency wins than their second-vote share warrants across the twelve districts. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats largely due to CDU constituency strength; similar dynamics this cycle depend on district-level results and whether smaller parties clear the 5% threshold. Trader prices remain closely bunched because modest shifts in first-vote outcomes or turnout can alter the overhang total by several seats without changing the overall party balance.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a tight five-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD clustered between roughly 12% and 21%. Under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system, the Abgeordnetenhaus starts at a minimum of 130 seats but expands through overhang and leveling mandates when parties secure more direct constituency wins than their second-vote share warrants across the twelve districts. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats largely due to CDU constituency strength; similar dynamics this cycle depend on district-level results and whether smaller parties clear the 5% threshold. Trader prices remain closely bunched because modest shifts in first-vote outcomes or turnout can alter the overhang total by several seats without changing the overall party balance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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