Geopolitical tensions centered on the Strait of Hormuz and associated Middle East supply risks remain the dominant driver behind the 60.5% market-implied probability that June WTI crude oil (CL) settles above $84. Persistent production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day have triggered sharp inventory draws, lifting front-month futures into the low-to-mid $90s amid elevated volatility as of early June 2026. Recent diplomatic signals on potential U.S.-Iran de-escalation and Israel-Lebanon ceasefire progress introduced modest downside pressure in the past 48 hours, tempering gains from prior surges. Trader consensus continues to embed a substantial risk premium, with the June 7 OPEC+ meeting and weekly EIA inventory releases serving as near-term catalysts that could refine positioning across the $77–$84 and higher buckets.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 61%
$77-$84 18%
$70-$77 7.3%
$63-$70 2.1%
$219,453 Wol.
$219,453 Wol.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
7%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
61%
>$84 61%
$77-$84 18%
$70-$77 7.3%
$63-$70 2.1%
$219,453 Wol.
$219,453 Wol.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
7%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
61%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical tensions centered on the Strait of Hormuz and associated Middle East supply risks remain the dominant driver behind the 60.5% market-implied probability that June WTI crude oil (CL) settles above $84. Persistent production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day have triggered sharp inventory draws, lifting front-month futures into the low-to-mid $90s amid elevated volatility as of early June 2026. Recent diplomatic signals on potential U.S.-Iran de-escalation and Israel-Lebanon ceasefire progress introduced modest downside pressure in the past 48 hours, tempering gains from prior surges. Trader consensus continues to embed a substantial risk premium, with the June 7 OPEC+ meeting and weekly EIA inventory releases serving as near-term catalysts that could refine positioning across the $77–$84 and higher buckets.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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