Geopolitical supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind the 62% market-implied odds for WTI crude oil settling above $84 in June 2026. Production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day across Gulf states have triggered sharp Q2 inventory draws averaging 8.5 million barrels daily, lifting front-month futures near $91–$95 per barrel as of early June amid elevated volatility. Recent diplomatic signals, including the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and potential U.S.-Iran de-escalation, have introduced modest downside pressure and price pullbacks, yet the prevailing risk premium continues to outweigh baseline expectations for supply recovery. Key near-term catalysts include the June 7 OPEC+ meeting and weekly EIA inventory reports, which will further shape trader positioning on price thresholds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 63%
$77-$84 20%
$70-$77 6.8%
$63-$70 2.0%
$219,730 Wol.
$219,730 Wol.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
7%
$77-$84
20%
>$84
63%
>$84 63%
$77-$84 20%
$70-$77 6.8%
$63-$70 2.0%
$219,730 Wol.
$219,730 Wol.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
7%
$77-$84
20%
>$84
63%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver behind the 62% market-implied odds for WTI crude oil settling above $84 in June 2026. Production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day across Gulf states have triggered sharp Q2 inventory draws averaging 8.5 million barrels daily, lifting front-month futures near $91–$95 per barrel as of early June amid elevated volatility. Recent diplomatic signals, including the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and potential U.S.-Iran de-escalation, have introduced modest downside pressure and price pullbacks, yet the prevailing risk premium continues to outweigh baseline expectations for supply recovery. Key near-term catalysts include the June 7 OPEC+ meeting and weekly EIA inventory reports, which will further shape trader positioning on price thresholds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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