Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGemini 3.2 released on...?
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
May 19 34%
No release by May 31 31%
May 12 7%
May 27 6.9%
$35,819 Wol.
$35,819 Wol.
May 31, 2026
On or prior to May 6
<1%
May 7
2%
May 8
8%
May 9
1%
May 10
3%
May 11
3%
May 12
7%
May 13
6%
May 14
5%
May 15
2%
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
4%
May 19
34%
May 20
5%
May 21
3%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
3%
May 26
1%
May 27
7%
May 28
<1%
May 29
1%
May 30
2%
May 31
1%
No release by May 31
31%
May 19 34%
No release by May 31 31%
May 12 7%
May 27 6.9%
$35,819 Wol.
$35,819 Wol.
May 31, 2026
On or prior to May 6
$1,428 Wol.
<1%
May 7
$788 Wol.
2%
May 8
$499 Wol.
8%
May 9
$2,773 Wol.
1%
May 10
$2,853 Wol.
3%
May 11
$554 Wol.
3%
May 12
$567 Wol.
7%
May 13
$604 Wol.
6%
May 14
$526 Wol.
5%
May 15
$524 Wol.
2%
May 16
$2,806 Wol.
<1%
May 17
$2,818 Wol.
1%
May 18
$752 Wol.
4%
May 19
$1,292 Wol.
34%
May 20
$857 Wol.
5%
May 21
$791 Wol.
3%
May 22
$771 Wol.
2%
May 23
$2,581 Wol.
<1%
May 24
$2,626 Wol.
1%
May 25
$596 Wol.
3%
May 26
$601 Wol.
1%
May 27
$586 Wol.
7%
May 28
$586 Wol.
<1%
May 29
$611 Wol.
1%
May 30
$2,995 Wol.
2%
May 31
$2,762 Wol.
1%
No release by May 31
$673 Wol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$35,819Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$35,819Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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