The May 2026 federal jury verdict dismissing Elon Musk’s claims against Sam Altman and OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds drives the 96% market-implied probability against any settlement. Traders view the unanimous, rapid decision—rejecting breach-of-mission and unjust-enrichment allegations without reaching the merits—as closing the core dispute, especially after Musk labeled the outcome a “calendar technicality” and signaled an appeal. Pre-trial texts showed Musk probing settlement talks that went nowhere, reinforcing the sense that neither side sees leverage for a deal now. While an appellate reversal or separate trade-secrets litigation could theoretically reopen negotiations, such procedural bars are rarely overturned, leaving little realistic path for resolution by the December 2026 market close.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
$28,794 Wol.
$28,794 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$28,794 Wol.
$28,794 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The May 2026 federal jury verdict dismissing Elon Musk’s claims against Sam Altman and OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds drives the 96% market-implied probability against any settlement. Traders view the unanimous, rapid decision—rejecting breach-of-mission and unjust-enrichment allegations without reaching the merits—as closing the core dispute, especially after Musk labeled the outcome a “calendar technicality” and signaled an appeal. Pre-trial texts showed Musk probing settlement talks that went nowhere, reinforcing the sense that neither side sees leverage for a deal now. While an appellate reversal or separate trade-secrets litigation could theoretically reopen negotiations, such procedural bars are rarely overturned, leaving little realistic path for resolution by the December 2026 market close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Wolumen
$28,794Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The May 2026 federal jury verdict dismissing Elon Musk’s claims against Sam Altman and OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds drives the 96% market-implied probability against any settlement. Traders view the unanimous, rapid decision—rejecting breach-of-mission and unjust-enrichment allegations without reaching the merits—as closing the core dispute, especially after Musk labeled the outcome a “calendar technicality” and signaled an appeal. Pre-trial texts showed Musk probing settlement talks that went nowhere, reinforcing the sense that neither side sees leverage for a deal now. While an appellate reversal or separate trade-secrets litigation could theoretically reopen negotiations, such procedural bars are rarely overturned, leaving little realistic path for resolution by the December 2026 market close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$28,794Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The May 2026 federal jury verdict dismissing Elon Musk’s claims against Sam Altman and OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds drives the 96% market-implied probability against any settlement. Traders view the unanimous, rapid decision—rejecting breach-of-mission and unjust-enrichment allegations without reaching the merits—as closing the core dispute, especially after Musk labeled the outcome a “calendar technicality” and signaled an appeal. Pre-trial texts showed Musk probing settlement talks that went nowhere, reinforcing the sense that neither side sees leverage for a deal now. While an appellate reversal or separate trade-secrets litigation could theoretically reopen negotiations, such procedural bars are rarely overturned, leaving little realistic path for resolution by the December 2026 market close.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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