Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on the codenamed "Spud" frontier model's post-pretraining timeline after completion around March 24, when CEO Sam Altman hinted at a "few weeks" rollout. This positioning sharpened in recent days amid OpenAI employee hype posts and a sharp odds jump around April 14, despite no official announcement—distinguishing rumors from confirmed GPT-5.4 (March 5) and specialized GPT-Rosalind (April 16) launches. Low probabilities for earlier dates acknowledge missed April windows, while 5% on "No release by April 30" underscores conviction in mid-to-late April, though AI model delays from safety testing or compute remain risks ahead of potential Friday drop.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGPT-5.5 released on...?
GPT-5.5 released on...?
April 23 82%
No release by April 30 5.2%
April 30 3.8%
April 21 3.0%
$129,042 Wol.
$129,042 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 17
<1%
April 18
<1%
April 19
<1%
April 20
2%
April 21
3%
April 22
1%
April 23
82%
April 24
2%
April 25
<1%
April 26
1%
April 27
2%
April 28
2%
April 29
1%
April 30
4%
No release by April 30
5%
April 23 82%
No release by April 30 5.2%
April 30 3.8%
April 21 3.0%
$129,042 Wol.
$129,042 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 17
$2,969 Wol.
<1%
April 18
$2,130 Wol.
<1%
April 19
$1,917 Wol.
<1%
April 20
$2,326 Wol.
2%
April 21
$3,458 Wol.
3%
April 22
$5,009 Wol.
1%
April 23
$27,176 Wol.
82%
April 24
$2,680 Wol.
2%
April 25
$1,552 Wol.
<1%
April 26
$1,910 Wol.
1%
April 27
$2,333 Wol.
2%
April 28
$2,819 Wol.
2%
April 29
$2,651 Wol.
1%
April 30
$4,232 Wol.
4%
No release by April 30
$6,577 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on the codenamed "Spud" frontier model's post-pretraining timeline after completion around March 24, when CEO Sam Altman hinted at a "few weeks" rollout. This positioning sharpened in recent days amid OpenAI employee hype posts and a sharp odds jump around April 14, despite no official announcement—distinguishing rumors from confirmed GPT-5.4 (March 5) and specialized GPT-Rosalind (April 16) launches. Low probabilities for earlier dates acknowledge missed April windows, while 5% on "No release by April 30" underscores conviction in mid-to-late April, though AI model delays from safety testing or compute remain risks ahead of potential Friday drop.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$129,042Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on the codenamed "Spud" frontier model's post-pretraining timeline after completion around March 24, when CEO Sam Altman hinted at a "few weeks" rollout. This positioning sharpened in recent days amid OpenAI employee hype posts and a sharp odds jump around April 14, despite no official announcement—distinguishing rumors from confirmed GPT-5.4 (March 5) and specialized GPT-Rosalind (April 16) launches. Low probabilities for earlier dates acknowledge missed April windows, while 5% on "No release by April 30" underscores conviction in mid-to-late April, though AI model delays from safety testing or compute remain risks ahead of potential Friday drop.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$129,042Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82% implied probability to OpenAI releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on the codenamed "Spud" frontier model's post-pretraining timeline after completion around March 24, when CEO Sam Altman hinted at a "few weeks" rollout. This positioning sharpened in recent days amid OpenAI employee hype posts and a sharp odds jump around April 14, despite no official announcement—distinguishing rumors from confirmed GPT-5.4 (March 5) and specialized GPT-Rosalind (April 16) launches. Low probabilities for earlier dates acknowledge missed April windows, while 5% on "No release by April 30" underscores conviction in mid-to-late April, though AI model delays from safety testing or compute remain risks ahead of potential Friday drop.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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