Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a high temperature of 19°C or higher in Istanbul today, driven by strong alignment across global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside AccuWeather and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projections of afternoon peaks at 19-20°C. Sunny skies, light southerly winds around 11 km/h, and a high-pressure ridge are fueling daytime heating, with midday observations already reaching 16°C and RealFeel values up to 23°C. This exceeds April climatological averages of 16-17°C at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, the market's NOAA resolution station. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine-layer clouds or a sudden sea breeze, though model agreement and minimal 1% precipitation risk make such shifts unlikely; monitor hourly airport readings through evening for confirmation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 20?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 20?
19°C or higher 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$61,910 Wol.
$61,910 Wol.
Apr 20, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
Yes
19°C or higher 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$61,910 Wol.
$61,910 Wol.
Apr 20, 2026
9°C or below
$1,352 Wol.
No
10°C
$2,651 Wol.
No
11°C
$2,196 Wol.
No
12°C
$2,073 Wol.
No
13°C
$1,730 Wol.
No
14°C
$4,386 Wol.
No
15°C
$12,194 Wol.
No
16°C
$7,889 Wol.
No
17°C
$5,448 Wol.
No
18°C
$7,562 Wol.
No
19°C or higher
$14,430 Wol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a high temperature of 19°C or higher in Istanbul today, driven by strong alignment across global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside AccuWeather and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projections of afternoon peaks at 19-20°C. Sunny skies, light southerly winds around 11 km/h, and a high-pressure ridge are fueling daytime heating, with midday observations already reaching 16°C and RealFeel values up to 23°C. This exceeds April climatological averages of 16-17°C at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, the market's NOAA resolution station. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine-layer clouds or a sudden sea breeze, though model agreement and minimal 1% precipitation risk make such shifts unlikely; monitor hourly airport readings through evening for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$61,910Data zakończenia
Apr 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a high temperature of 19°C or higher in Istanbul today, driven by strong alignment across global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside AccuWeather and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projections of afternoon peaks at 19-20°C. Sunny skies, light southerly winds around 11 km/h, and a high-pressure ridge are fueling daytime heating, with midday observations already reaching 16°C and RealFeel values up to 23°C. This exceeds April climatological averages of 16-17°C at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, the market's NOAA resolution station. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine-layer clouds or a sudden sea breeze, though model agreement and minimal 1% precipitation risk make such shifts unlikely; monitor hourly airport readings through evening for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$61,910Data zakończenia
Apr 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a high temperature of 19°C or higher in Istanbul today, driven by strong alignment across global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside AccuWeather and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projections of afternoon peaks at 19-20°C. Sunny skies, light southerly winds around 11 km/h, and a high-pressure ridge are fueling daytime heating, with midday observations already reaching 16°C and RealFeel values up to 23°C. This exceeds April climatological averages of 16-17°C at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, the market's NOAA resolution station. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine-layer clouds or a sudden sea breeze, though model agreement and minimal 1% precipitation risk make such shifts unlikely; monitor hourly airport readings through evening for confirmation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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