Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C at Istanbul Airport (per NOAA observations), driven by an anomalous cold northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover suppressing daytime heating on April 22, 2026. Current readings hover around 9–10°C (48–50°F) amid light rain and overcast skies, aligning with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global model forecasts (ECMWF, GFS) capping highs at 11°C amid post-frontal conditions—far below April climatological averages of 15–17°C. This positioning reflects real-time airport data confirming minimal warming potential as the day progresses. Realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing solar insolation to push peaks to 11°C, though low sun angle and moisture limit upside; final NOAA tallies expected by midnight UTC.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 22?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 22?
10°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$68,461 Wol.
$68,461 Wol.
Apr 22, 2026
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$68,461 Wol.
$68,461 Wol.
Apr 22, 2026
6°C or below
$630 Wol.
No
7°C
$985 Wol.
No
8°C
$3,424 Wol.
No
9°C
$6,861 Wol.
No
10°C
$14,140 Wol.
Yes
11°C
$7,925 Wol.
No
12°C
$15,681 Wol.
No
13°C
$7,280 Wol.
No
14°C
$5,493 Wol.
No
15°C
$3,562 Wol.
No
16°C or higher
$2,480 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C at Istanbul Airport (per NOAA observations), driven by an anomalous cold northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover suppressing daytime heating on April 22, 2026. Current readings hover around 9–10°C (48–50°F) amid light rain and overcast skies, aligning with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global model forecasts (ECMWF, GFS) capping highs at 11°C amid post-frontal conditions—far below April climatological averages of 15–17°C. This positioning reflects real-time airport data confirming minimal warming potential as the day progresses. Realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing solar insolation to push peaks to 11°C, though low sun angle and moisture limit upside; final NOAA tallies expected by midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 20, 2026, 12:48 AM ET
Wolumen
$68,461Data zakończenia
Apr 22, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 20, 2026, 12:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C at Istanbul Airport (per NOAA observations), driven by an anomalous cold northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover suppressing daytime heating on April 22, 2026. Current readings hover around 9–10°C (48–50°F) amid light rain and overcast skies, aligning with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global model forecasts (ECMWF, GFS) capping highs at 11°C amid post-frontal conditions—far below April climatological averages of 15–17°C. This positioning reflects real-time airport data confirming minimal warming potential as the day progresses. Realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing solar insolation to push peaks to 11°C, though low sun angle and moisture limit upside; final NOAA tallies expected by midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$68,461Data zakończenia
Apr 22, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 20, 2026, 12:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C at Istanbul Airport (per NOAA observations), driven by an anomalous cold northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover suppressing daytime heating on April 22, 2026. Current readings hover around 9–10°C (48–50°F) amid light rain and overcast skies, aligning with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global model forecasts (ECMWF, GFS) capping highs at 11°C amid post-frontal conditions—far below April climatological averages of 15–17°C. This positioning reflects real-time airport data confirming minimal warming potential as the day progresses. Realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing solar insolation to push peaks to 11°C, though low sun angle and moisture limit upside; final NOAA tallies expected by midnight UTC.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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