Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 25?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 25?
19°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$66,761 Wol.
$66,761 Wol.
Apr 25, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$66,761 Wol.
$66,761 Wol.
Apr 25, 2026
12°C or below
$746 Wol.
No
13°C
$1,965 Wol.
No
14°C
$2,052 Wol.
No
15°C
$2,914 Wol.
No
16°C
$3,672 Wol.
No
17°C
$3,669 Wol.
No
18°C
$4,809 Wol.
No
19°C
$17,792 Wol.
Yes
20°C
$10,412 Wol.
No
21°C
$9,338 Wol.
No
22°C or higher
$9,392 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 23, 2026, 12:40 AM ET
Wolumen
$66,761Data zakończenia
Apr 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 23, 2026, 12:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$66,761Data zakończenia
Apr 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 23, 2026, 12:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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