Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 6?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 6?
17°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$41,501 Wol.
$41,501 Wol.
May 6, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$41,501 Wol.
$41,501 Wol.
May 6, 2026
11°C or below
$343 Wol.
No
12°C
$534 Wol.
No
13°C
$777 Wol.
No
14°C
$1,467 Wol.
No
15°C
$3,875 Wol.
No
16°C
$4,761 Wol.
No
17°C
$8,597 Wol.
Yes
18°C
$5,850 Wol.
No
19°C
$8,027 Wol.
No
20°C
$3,459 Wol.
No
21°C or higher
$3,812 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$41,501Data zakończenia
May 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$41,501Data zakończenia
May 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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