Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 37°C or higher in Lagos on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (station DNMM via Wunderground and NiMet monitoring), where midday readings have already exceeded this mark under clear skies, low wind shear, and reduced relative humidity below 60%—conditions atypical for May's transition to wetter patterns. This surpasses the monthly climatological average high of 31–32°C, reflecting a localized heat dome amplified by urban heat island effects in Lagos. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions by NiMet for sensor anomalies or unaccounted cloud bursts capping the official daily maximum, with final resolution pending evening data finalization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Lagos on May 12?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 12?
37°C or higher 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$168,740 Wol.
$168,740 Wol.
May 12, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
Yes
37°C or higher 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$168,740 Wol.
$168,740 Wol.
May 12, 2026
27°C or below
$5,674 Wol.
No
28°C
$2,743 Wol.
No
29°C
$1,757 Wol.
No
30°C
$2,403 Wol.
No
31°C
$2,660 Wol.
No
32°C
$7,039 Wol.
No
33°C
$60,657 Wol.
No
34°C
$11,874 Wol.
No
35°C
$6,236 Wol.
No
36°C
$4,719 Wol.
No
37°C or higher
$62,979 Wol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 37°C or higher in Lagos on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (station DNMM via Wunderground and NiMet monitoring), where midday readings have already exceeded this mark under clear skies, low wind shear, and reduced relative humidity below 60%—conditions atypical for May's transition to wetter patterns. This surpasses the monthly climatological average high of 31–32°C, reflecting a localized heat dome amplified by urban heat island effects in Lagos. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions by NiMet for sensor anomalies or unaccounted cloud bursts capping the official daily maximum, with final resolution pending evening data finalization.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 10, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Wolumen
$168,740Data zakończenia
May 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 10, 2026, 12:22 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 37°C or higher in Lagos on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (station DNMM via Wunderground and NiMet monitoring), where midday readings have already exceeded this mark under clear skies, low wind shear, and reduced relative humidity below 60%—conditions atypical for May's transition to wetter patterns. This surpasses the monthly climatological average high of 31–32°C, reflecting a localized heat dome amplified by urban heat island effects in Lagos. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions by NiMet for sensor anomalies or unaccounted cloud bursts capping the official daily maximum, with final resolution pending evening data finalization.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$168,740Data zakończenia
May 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 10, 2026, 12:22 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 37°C or higher in Lagos on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (station DNMM via Wunderground and NiMet monitoring), where midday readings have already exceeded this mark under clear skies, low wind shear, and reduced relative humidity below 60%—conditions atypical for May's transition to wetter patterns. This surpasses the monthly climatological average high of 31–32°C, reflecting a localized heat dome amplified by urban heat island effects in Lagos. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions by NiMet for sensor anomalies or unaccounted cloud bursts capping the official daily maximum, with final resolution pending evening data finalization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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