**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on July 5?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 5?
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$87,228 Wol.
$87,228 Wol.
Jul 5, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$87,228 Wol.
$87,228 Wol.
Jul 5, 2026
9°C or below
$5,465 Wol.
No
10°C
$4,130 Wol.
No
11°C
$2,729 Wol.
No
12°C
$9,004 Wol.
No
13°C
$18,822 Wol.
No
14°C
$20,220 Wol.
Yes
15°C
$13,802 Wol.
No
16°C
$5,655 Wol.
No
17°C
$2,644 Wol.
No
18°C
$2,979 Wol.
No
19°C or higher
$1,779 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$87,228Data zakończenia
Jul 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$87,228Data zakończenia
Jul 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania