Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on May 2?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 2?
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$41,435 Wol.
$41,435 Wol.
May 2, 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$41,435 Wol.
$41,435 Wol.
May 2, 2026
30°C or below
$4,720 Wol.
No
31°C
$2,783 Wol.
No
32°C
$2,867 Wol.
No
33°C
$5,474 Wol.
No
34°C
$4,839 Wol.
No
35°C
$4,936 Wol.
No
36°C
$3,727 Wol.
Yes
37°C
$3,790 Wol.
No
38°C
$2,577 Wol.
No
39°C
$1,909 Wol.
No
40°C or higher
$3,813 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Wolumen
$41,435Data zakończenia
May 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$41,435Data zakończenia
May 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Manila's highest temperature reaching exactly 36°C on May 2, 2026, driven by official PAGASA observations at the resolution source—Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City—which recorded a maximum of 36.2°C around mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This aligns with the agency's regional forecast range of 25–36°C for Metro Manila amid ongoing dry season conditions influenced by weak easterlies and lingering El Niño effects boosting above-average heat. Intraday data from nearby stations like Science Garden in Quezon City topped at 35.3°C, reinforcing the NAIA peak without exceeding it. With the day concluded and no revisions expected, scenarios challenging this—like measurement recalibrations or overlooked late-day spikes—are highly improbable given PAGASA's verified methodology.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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