Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model runs indicate New York City highs on August 25 are most likely to fall in the 78–81°F range, with the 78–79°F bin holding a slight edge in trader positioning due to ensemble consensus favoring modest onshore flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Key differentiating factors include the precise position of a weak upper-level trough and boundary-layer moisture, which can suppress or enhance temperatures by 2–3°F; drier air and stronger insolation would push readings toward 80–81°F, while increased marine influence keeps them lower. Historical late-August climatology shows average highs near 82°F, underscoring why markets assign low probability to extremes above 84°F or below 76°F absent major pattern shifts. New 12z model guidance and evening observations will provide the final resolution data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in NYC on August 25?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?
78-79°F 41%
80-81°F 35%
76-77°F 16%
82-83°F 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 25, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
41%
80-81°F
35%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
1%
78-79°F 41%
80-81°F 35%
76-77°F 16%
82-83°F 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 25, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Wol.
<1%
68-69°F
$0 Wol.
<1%
70-71°F
$5 Wol.
1%
72-73°F
$5 Wol.
1%
74-75°F
$2 Wol.
5%
76-77°F
$47 Wol.
16%
78-79°F
$188 Wol.
41%
80-81°F
$29 Wol.
35%
82-83°F
$0 Wol.
7%
84-85°F
$50 Wol.
2%
86°F or higher
$5 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model runs indicate New York City highs on August 25 are most likely to fall in the 78–81°F range, with the 78–79°F bin holding a slight edge in trader positioning due to ensemble consensus favoring modest onshore flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Key differentiating factors include the precise position of a weak upper-level trough and boundary-layer moisture, which can suppress or enhance temperatures by 2–3°F; drier air and stronger insolation would push readings toward 80–81°F, while increased marine influence keeps them lower. Historical late-August climatology shows average highs near 82°F, underscoring why markets assign low probability to extremes above 84°F or below 76°F absent major pattern shifts. New 12z model guidance and evening observations will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$330Data zakończenia
Aug 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model runs indicate New York City highs on August 25 are most likely to fall in the 78–81°F range, with the 78–79°F bin holding a slight edge in trader positioning due to ensemble consensus favoring modest onshore flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Key differentiating factors include the precise position of a weak upper-level trough and boundary-layer moisture, which can suppress or enhance temperatures by 2–3°F; drier air and stronger insolation would push readings toward 80–81°F, while increased marine influence keeps them lower. Historical late-August climatology shows average highs near 82°F, underscoring why markets assign low probability to extremes above 84°F or below 76°F absent major pattern shifts. New 12z model guidance and evening observations will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$330Data zakończenia
Aug 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model runs indicate New York City highs on August 25 are most likely to fall in the 78–81°F range, with the 78–79°F bin holding a slight edge in trader positioning due to ensemble consensus favoring modest onshore flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Key differentiating factors include the precise position of a weak upper-level trough and boundary-layer moisture, which can suppress or enhance temperatures by 2–3°F; drier air and stronger insolation would push readings toward 80–81°F, while increased marine influence keeps them lower. Historical late-August climatology shows average highs near 82°F, underscoring why markets assign low probability to extremes above 84°F or below 76°F absent major pattern shifts. New 12z model guidance and evening observations will provide the final resolution data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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