Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 19?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 19?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$58,290 Wol.
$58,290 Wol.
Jul 19, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$58,290 Wol.
$58,290 Wol.
Jul 19, 2026
26°C or below
$467 Wol.
No
27°C
$250 Wol.
No
28°C
$7,019 Wol.
No
29°C
$12,130 Wol.
No
30°C
$5,617 Wol.
No
31°C
$6,222 Wol.
No
32°C
$7,196 Wol.
Yes
33°C
$7,828 Wol.
No
34°C
$8,203 Wol.
No
35°C
$2,841 Wol.
No
36°C or higher
$516 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$58,290Data zakończenia
Jul 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$58,290Data zakończenia
Jul 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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