Current ensemble forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge over eastern China, suppressing cloud cover and limiting nocturnal cooling, which supports market-implied odds favoring a Shanghai minimum of 32°C or higher. Historical July baselines for the city average around 26–28°C overnight lows, but recent model runs highlight above-normal 850 hPa temperatures and weak southerly flow that reduce radiative heat loss. Key upcoming updates from 48–72 hour model cycles could shift probabilities if a frontal passage or increased moisture arrives earlier than projected. Trader consensus reflects this short-term stability while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C near the event.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$23,747 Wol.
$23,747 Wol.
Jul 24, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$23,747 Wol.
$23,747 Wol.
Jul 24, 2026
22°C or below
$495 Wol.
No
23°C
$547 Wol.
No
24°C
$990 Wol.
No
25°C
$596 Wol.
No
26°C
$2,440 Wol.
No
27°C
$6,905 Wol.
No
28°C
$7,020 Wol.
Yes
29°C
$2,286 Wol.
No
30°C
$1,050 Wol.
No
31°C
$509 Wol.
No
32°C or higher
$909 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge over eastern China, suppressing cloud cover and limiting nocturnal cooling, which supports market-implied odds favoring a Shanghai minimum of 32°C or higher. Historical July baselines for the city average around 26–28°C overnight lows, but recent model runs highlight above-normal 850 hPa temperatures and weak southerly flow that reduce radiative heat loss. Key upcoming updates from 48–72 hour model cycles could shift probabilities if a frontal passage or increased moisture arrives earlier than projected. Trader consensus reflects this short-term stability while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C near the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$23,747Data zakończenia
Jul 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge over eastern China, suppressing cloud cover and limiting nocturnal cooling, which supports market-implied odds favoring a Shanghai minimum of 32°C or higher. Historical July baselines for the city average around 26–28°C overnight lows, but recent model runs highlight above-normal 850 hPa temperatures and weak southerly flow that reduce radiative heat loss. Key upcoming updates from 48–72 hour model cycles could shift probabilities if a frontal passage or increased moisture arrives earlier than projected. Trader consensus reflects this short-term stability while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C near the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$23,747Data zakończenia
Jul 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Current ensemble forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge over eastern China, suppressing cloud cover and limiting nocturnal cooling, which supports market-implied odds favoring a Shanghai minimum of 32°C or higher. Historical July baselines for the city average around 26–28°C overnight lows, but recent model runs highlight above-normal 850 hPa temperatures and weak southerly flow that reduce radiative heat loss. Key upcoming updates from 48–72 hour model cycles could shift probabilities if a frontal passage or increased moisture arrives earlier than projected. Trader consensus reflects this short-term stability while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C near the event.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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