**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$163,579 Wol.
$163,579 Wol.
May 6, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$163,579 Wol.
$163,579 Wol.
May 6, 2026
14°C or below
$10,794 Wol.
No
15°C
$12,279 Wol.
No
16°C
$242 Wol.
No
17°C
$1,103 Wol.
No
18°C
$11,231 Wol.
No
19°C
$12,735 Wol.
No
20°C
$15,492 Wol.
No
21°C
$37,279 Wol.
No
22°C
$24,813 Wol.
Yes
23°C
$16,386 Wol.
No
24°C or higher
$21,224 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Wolumen
$163,579Data zakończenia
May 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$163,579Data zakończenia
May 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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