**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins. Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range. Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Paris on July 13?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 13?
22°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,520 Wol.
$12,520 Wol.
Jul 13, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,520 Wol.
$12,520 Wol.
Jul 13, 2026
21°C or below
$1,926 Wol.
No
22°C
$2,322 Wol.
Yes
23°C
$1,626 Wol.
No
24°C
$1,298 Wol.
No
25°C
$756 Wol.
No
26°C
$668 Wol.
No
27°C
$845 Wol.
No
28°C
$1,632 Wol.
No
29°C
$764 Wol.
No
30°C
$389 Wol.
No
31°C or higher
$294 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins.
Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range.
Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$12,520Data zakończenia
Jul 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins.
Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range.
Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$12,520Data zakończenia
Jul 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins. Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range. Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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