Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on May 5?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 5?
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$67,272 Wol.
$67,272 Wol.
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$67,272 Wol.
$67,272 Wol.
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
$2,514 Wol.
No
11°C
$570 Wol.
No
12°C
$1,178 Wol.
No
13°C
$2,499 Wol.
No
14°C
$11,780 Wol.
No
15°C
$18,526 Wol.
No
16°C
$12,393 Wol.
Yes
17°C
$6,427 Wol.
No
18°C
$5,447 Wol.
No
19°C
$3,065 Wol.
No
20°C or higher
$2,873 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Wolumen
$67,272Data zakończenia
May 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$67,272Data zakończenia
May 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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