Polymarket traders are pricing a 32.5% implied probability for SpaceX raising 70-80 billion in IPO proceeds, reflecting consensus around recent reports of a 75 billion target amid a targeted 1.75 trillion valuation following the company's confidential SEC filing on April 1. This mid-range lead stems from December 2025's 800 billion tender offer establishing a valuation floor, accelerated employee share vesting signaling a compressed timeline to a late-May prospectus and mid-June pricing, and robust Starlink revenue growth supporting aggressive sizing. Lower brackets like 50-60 billion (15.5%) account for potential demand conservatism amid equity market volatility, while 80-90 billion (14%) and above hinge on outsized institutional appetite and up to 30% retail allocation; sub-40 billion odds remain slim at 4.9% barring macroeconomic shocks. Key swing factors include roadshow outcomes and final share allocation ahead of the June resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$135,155 Wol.
$135,155 Wol.
<40B
5%
40-50B
3%
50-60B
16%
60-70B
12%
70-80B
33%
80-90B
15%
90-100B
2%
100-110B
8%
110-120B
1%
120B+
3%
$135,155 Wol.
$135,155 Wol.
<40B
$9,568 Wol.
5%
40-50B
$5,310 Wol.
3%
50-60B
$33,062 Wol.
16%
60-70B
$14,044 Wol.
12%
70-80B
$24,208 Wol.
33%
80-90B
$15,462 Wol.
15%
90-100B
$10,080 Wol.
2%
100-110B
$7,478 Wol.
8%
110-120B
$8,448 Wol.
1%
120B+
$7,496 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders are pricing a 32.5% implied probability for SpaceX raising 70-80 billion in IPO proceeds, reflecting consensus around recent reports of a 75 billion target amid a targeted 1.75 trillion valuation following the company's confidential SEC filing on April 1. This mid-range lead stems from December 2025's 800 billion tender offer establishing a valuation floor, accelerated employee share vesting signaling a compressed timeline to a late-May prospectus and mid-June pricing, and robust Starlink revenue growth supporting aggressive sizing. Lower brackets like 50-60 billion (15.5%) account for potential demand conservatism amid equity market volatility, while 80-90 billion (14%) and above hinge on outsized institutional appetite and up to 30% retail allocation; sub-40 billion odds remain slim at 4.9% barring macroeconomic shocks. Key swing factors include roadshow outcomes and final share allocation ahead of the June resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Wolumen
$135,155Rynek otwarty
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders are pricing a 32.5% implied probability for SpaceX raising 70-80 billion in IPO proceeds, reflecting consensus around recent reports of a 75 billion target amid a targeted 1.75 trillion valuation following the company's confidential SEC filing on April 1. This mid-range lead stems from December 2025's 800 billion tender offer establishing a valuation floor, accelerated employee share vesting signaling a compressed timeline to a late-May prospectus and mid-June pricing, and robust Starlink revenue growth supporting aggressive sizing. Lower brackets like 50-60 billion (15.5%) account for potential demand conservatism amid equity market volatility, while 80-90 billion (14%) and above hinge on outsized institutional appetite and up to 30% retail allocation; sub-40 billion odds remain slim at 4.9% barring macroeconomic shocks. Key swing factors include roadshow outcomes and final share allocation ahead of the June resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$135,155Rynek otwarty
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders are pricing a 32.5% implied probability for SpaceX raising 70-80 billion in IPO proceeds, reflecting consensus around recent reports of a 75 billion target amid a targeted 1.75 trillion valuation following the company's confidential SEC filing on April 1. This mid-range lead stems from December 2025's 800 billion tender offer establishing a valuation floor, accelerated employee share vesting signaling a compressed timeline to a late-May prospectus and mid-June pricing, and robust Starlink revenue growth supporting aggressive sizing. Lower brackets like 50-60 billion (15.5%) account for potential demand conservatism amid equity market volatility, while 80-90 billion (14%) and above hinge on outsized institutional appetite and up to 30% retail allocation; sub-40 billion odds remain slim at 4.9% barring macroeconomic shocks. Key swing factors include roadshow outcomes and final share allocation ahead of the June resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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