**Trader sentiment for the NYC lowest temperature on July 18, 2026, clusters tightly around the 70–75°F range because numerical weather prediction models show the overnight minimum falling near the long-term July climatological average of ~70°F, with only modest spread from local factors.** Recent model consensus from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the daily low in the upper 60s to mid-70s, consistent with post-heat-wave moderation after early-July warmth. Key differentiating variables include the strength of radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, boundary-layer wind speeds (lighter winds allow deeper drops), dewpoint depression, and the urban heat island effect at official stations such as LaGuardia (KLGA). Small timing differences in any weak frontal passage or marine influence can easily shift the minimum by 2–4°F, which is why the top brackets (72–73°F, 74–75°F, 70–71°F) hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 36–37%. Lower outcomes below 66°F or above 78°F remain low-probability tails absent an unexpected surge of cooler air or persistent cloud cover suppressing the drop. Updated short-range model guidance and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely provide the next meaningful shift in these tightly bunched odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in NYC on July 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 18?
70-71°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$21,068 Wol.
$21,068 Wol.
Jul 18, 2026
63°F or below
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
Yes
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82°F or higher
No
70-71°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$21,068 Wol.
$21,068 Wol.
Jul 18, 2026
63°F or below
$1,326 Wol.
No
64-65°F
$2,651 Wol.
No
66-67°F
$2,268 Wol.
No
68-69°F
$1,232 Wol.
No
70-71°F
$2,161 Wol.
Yes
72-73°F
$1,536 Wol.
No
74-75°F
$3,294 Wol.
No
76-77°F
$2,937 Wol.
No
78-79°F
$2,497 Wol.
No
80-81°F
$688 Wol.
No
82°F or higher
$477 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the NYC lowest temperature on July 18, 2026, clusters tightly around the 70–75°F range because numerical weather prediction models show the overnight minimum falling near the long-term July climatological average of ~70°F, with only modest spread from local factors.**
Recent model consensus from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the daily low in the upper 60s to mid-70s, consistent with post-heat-wave moderation after early-July warmth. Key differentiating variables include the strength of radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, boundary-layer wind speeds (lighter winds allow deeper drops), dewpoint depression, and the urban heat island effect at official stations such as LaGuardia (KLGA). Small timing differences in any weak frontal passage or marine influence can easily shift the minimum by 2–4°F, which is why the top brackets (72–73°F, 74–75°F, 70–71°F) hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 36–37%. Lower outcomes below 66°F or above 78°F remain low-probability tails absent an unexpected surge of cooler air or persistent cloud cover suppressing the drop. Updated short-range model guidance and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely provide the next meaningful shift in these tightly bunched odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 16, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,068Data zakończenia
Jul 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 9:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the NYC lowest temperature on July 18, 2026, clusters tightly around the 70–75°F range because numerical weather prediction models show the overnight minimum falling near the long-term July climatological average of ~70°F, with only modest spread from local factors.**
Recent model consensus from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the daily low in the upper 60s to mid-70s, consistent with post-heat-wave moderation after early-July warmth. Key differentiating variables include the strength of radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, boundary-layer wind speeds (lighter winds allow deeper drops), dewpoint depression, and the urban heat island effect at official stations such as LaGuardia (KLGA). Small timing differences in any weak frontal passage or marine influence can easily shift the minimum by 2–4°F, which is why the top brackets (72–73°F, 74–75°F, 70–71°F) hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 36–37%. Lower outcomes below 66°F or above 78°F remain low-probability tails absent an unexpected surge of cooler air or persistent cloud cover suppressing the drop. Updated short-range model guidance and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely provide the next meaningful shift in these tightly bunched odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$21,068Data zakończenia
Jul 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 9:30 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
**Trader sentiment for the NYC lowest temperature on July 18, 2026, clusters tightly around the 70–75°F range because numerical weather prediction models show the overnight minimum falling near the long-term July climatological average of ~70°F, with only modest spread from local factors.** Recent model consensus from sources like the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the daily low in the upper 60s to mid-70s, consistent with post-heat-wave moderation after early-July warmth. Key differentiating variables include the strength of radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, boundary-layer wind speeds (lighter winds allow deeper drops), dewpoint depression, and the urban heat island effect at official stations such as LaGuardia (KLGA). Small timing differences in any weak frontal passage or marine influence can easily shift the minimum by 2–4°F, which is why the top brackets (72–73°F, 74–75°F, 70–71°F) hold nearly identical implied probabilities near 36–37%. Lower outcomes below 66°F or above 78°F remain low-probability tails absent an unexpected surge of cooler air or persistent cloud cover suppressing the drop. Updated short-range model guidance and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely provide the next meaningful shift in these tightly bunched odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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