Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature reaching 11°C on April 29, driven by consensus forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those on AccuWeather and Weather.com, which project overnight and early morning lows near 11°C amid persistent moderate rain and northeast winds advecting cooler air masses. Current observations show morning temperatures around 11–12°C with light rain and dense cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, aligning with late-April climatological norms where average lows hover at 11°C. The 25.5% odds on 10°C reflect minor uncertainty from potential wind shifts or heavier cloud breaks, but high moisture levels favor stability; official station data will resolve by midnight, with hourly updates tracking any deviations through the diurnal cycle.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Shanghai on April 29?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on April 29?
11°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$15,650 Wol.
$15,650 Wol.
Apr 29, 2026
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
Yes
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
11°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$15,650 Wol.
$15,650 Wol.
Apr 29, 2026
5°C or below
$930 Wol.
No
6°C
$374 Wol.
No
7°C
$363 Wol.
No
8°C
$1,601 Wol.
No
9°C
$1,411 Wol.
No
10°C
$6,759 Wol.
No
11°C
$2,852 Wol.
Yes
12°C
$377 Wol.
No
13°C
$68 Wol.
No
14°C
$375 Wol.
No
15°C or higher
$539 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature reaching 11°C on April 29, driven by consensus forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those on AccuWeather and Weather.com, which project overnight and early morning lows near 11°C amid persistent moderate rain and northeast winds advecting cooler air masses. Current observations show morning temperatures around 11–12°C with light rain and dense cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, aligning with late-April climatological norms where average lows hover at 11°C. The 25.5% odds on 10°C reflect minor uncertainty from potential wind shifts or heavier cloud breaks, but high moisture levels favor stability; official station data will resolve by midnight, with hourly updates tracking any deviations through the diurnal cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Wolumen
$15,650Data zakończenia
Apr 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 12:15 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature reaching 11°C on April 29, driven by consensus forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those on AccuWeather and Weather.com, which project overnight and early morning lows near 11°C amid persistent moderate rain and northeast winds advecting cooler air masses. Current observations show morning temperatures around 11–12°C with light rain and dense cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, aligning with late-April climatological norms where average lows hover at 11°C. The 25.5% odds on 10°C reflect minor uncertainty from potential wind shifts or heavier cloud breaks, but high moisture levels favor stability; official station data will resolve by midnight, with hourly updates tracking any deviations through the diurnal cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$15,650Data zakończenia
Apr 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 12:15 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature reaching 11°C on April 29, driven by consensus forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those on AccuWeather and Weather.com, which project overnight and early morning lows near 11°C amid persistent moderate rain and northeast winds advecting cooler air masses. Current observations show morning temperatures around 11–12°C with light rain and dense cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, aligning with late-April climatological norms where average lows hover at 11°C. The 25.5% odds on 10°C reflect minor uncertainty from potential wind shifts or heavier cloud breaks, but high moisture levels favor stability; official station data will resolve by midnight, with hourly updates tracking any deviations through the diurnal cycle.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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