Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a Tokyo overnight minimum near 20°C on June 26, driving the narrow clustering of market probabilities around 19–22°C. Cloud cover and humidity typical of the tsuyu rainy season limit radiative cooling, while light southerly flow and possible showers maintain temperatures close to seasonal normals of 19–21°C. Minor shifts in frontal position or precipitation timing could push the low 1–2°C lower or higher, explaining the roughly equal weighting of 17–19°C outcomes and the slim tail probabilities below 17°C or above 22°C. Updated model runs and official guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on June 26?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 26?
21°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$17,076 Wol.
$17,076 Wol.
Jun 26, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$17,076 Wol.
$17,076 Wol.
Jun 26, 2026
15°C or below
$355 Wol.
No
16°C
$294 Wol.
No
17°C
$419 Wol.
No
18°C
$2,434 Wol.
No
19°C
$995 Wol.
No
20°C
$2,624 Wol.
No
21°C
$3,565 Wol.
Yes
22°C
$2,778 Wol.
No
23°C
$570 Wol.
No
24°C
$293 Wol.
No
25°C or higher
$2,749 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a Tokyo overnight minimum near 20°C on June 26, driving the narrow clustering of market probabilities around 19–22°C. Cloud cover and humidity typical of the tsuyu rainy season limit radiative cooling, while light southerly flow and possible showers maintain temperatures close to seasonal normals of 19–21°C. Minor shifts in frontal position or precipitation timing could push the low 1–2°C lower or higher, explaining the roughly equal weighting of 17–19°C outcomes and the slim tail probabilities below 17°C or above 22°C. Updated model runs and official guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$17,076Data zakończenia
Jun 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a Tokyo overnight minimum near 20°C on June 26, driving the narrow clustering of market probabilities around 19–22°C. Cloud cover and humidity typical of the tsuyu rainy season limit radiative cooling, while light southerly flow and possible showers maintain temperatures close to seasonal normals of 19–21°C. Minor shifts in frontal position or precipitation timing could push the low 1–2°C lower or higher, explaining the roughly equal weighting of 17–19°C outcomes and the slim tail probabilities below 17°C or above 22°C. Updated model runs and official guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$17,076Data zakończenia
Jun 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a Tokyo overnight minimum near 20°C on June 26, driving the narrow clustering of market probabilities around 19–22°C. Cloud cover and humidity typical of the tsuyu rainy season limit radiative cooling, while light southerly flow and possible showers maintain temperatures close to seasonal normals of 19–21°C. Minor shifts in frontal position or precipitation timing could push the low 1–2°C lower or higher, explaining the roughly equal weighting of 17–19°C outcomes and the slim tail probabilities below 17°C or above 22°C. Updated model runs and official guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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