Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$57,705 Wol.
$57,705 Wol.
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$57,705 Wol.
$57,705 Wol.
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
$18,263 Wol.
No
11°C
$16,410 Wol.
No
12°C
$13,365 Wol.
No
13°C
$1,319 Wol.
No
14°C
$3,633 Wol.
Yes
15°C
$596 Wol.
No
16°C
$724 Wol.
No
17°C
$1,100 Wol.
No
18°C
$941 Wol.
No
19°C
$886 Wol.
No
20°C or higher
$467 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Wolumen
$57,705Data zakończenia
May 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$57,705Data zakończenia
May 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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