Traders assign a 70% probability to Maduro avoiding conviction on all counts in his U.S. narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking case, reflecting the extended pretrial timeline and multiple procedural hurdles. Captured by U.S. forces in January 2026 and arraigned shortly afterward, Maduro and Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty to the four felony counts, including conspiracy charges carrying potential life sentences. A June 2027 trial date was set in July, with defense counsel scheduled to file immunity and jurisdictional challenges by early September and further arguments set for November. The head-of-state immunity claim, questions surrounding the military operation that brought Maduro into custody, and the narcoterrorism statute’s limited track record of contested convictions create substantial uncertainty. These factors, combined with the possibility of dismissal, plea negotiations, or partial acquittals, underpin the current market consensus.