Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 96.9% probability of no major geomagnetic storm—defined as G4 (severe, Kp=8) or G5 (extreme, Kp=9) on the NOAA G-scale—by April 30, driven by quiet solar conditions and the absence of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in current NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts. Recent G2 (moderate) watches for April 17-18 stem from a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS), peaking at Kp=6, with activity fading to G1 by April 19 and unsettled levels thereafter; the 27-day outlook shows low geomagnetic indices (A=5-20) through month-end. Solar Cycle 25, past its October 2024 peak, features fewer active regions and minimal flare risk (R3+ at 5%). A sudden X-class flare from a rotating-in sunspot complex could shift odds, but SWPC model consensus indicates negligible threat; monitor daily updates for new observations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMajor solar storm by April 30?
Major solar storm by April 30?
$12,480 Wol.
$12,480 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
$12,480 Wol.
$12,480 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 96.9% probability of no major geomagnetic storm—defined as G4 (severe, Kp=8) or G5 (extreme, Kp=9) on the NOAA G-scale—by April 30, driven by quiet solar conditions and the absence of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in current NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts. Recent G2 (moderate) watches for April 17-18 stem from a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS), peaking at Kp=6, with activity fading to G1 by April 19 and unsettled levels thereafter; the 27-day outlook shows low geomagnetic indices (A=5-20) through month-end. Solar Cycle 25, past its October 2024 peak, features fewer active regions and minimal flare risk (R3+ at 5%). A sudden X-class flare from a rotating-in sunspot complex could shift odds, but SWPC model consensus indicates negligible threat; monitor daily updates for new observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$12,480Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 96.9% probability of no major geomagnetic storm—defined as G4 (severe, Kp=8) or G5 (extreme, Kp=9) on the NOAA G-scale—by April 30, driven by quiet solar conditions and the absence of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in current NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts. Recent G2 (moderate) watches for April 17-18 stem from a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS), peaking at Kp=6, with activity fading to G1 by April 19 and unsettled levels thereafter; the 27-day outlook shows low geomagnetic indices (A=5-20) through month-end. Solar Cycle 25, past its October 2024 peak, features fewer active regions and minimal flare risk (R3+ at 5%). A sudden X-class flare from a rotating-in sunspot complex could shift odds, but SWPC model consensus indicates negligible threat; monitor daily updates for new observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$12,480Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 96.9% probability of no major geomagnetic storm—defined as G4 (severe, Kp=8) or G5 (extreme, Kp=9) on the NOAA G-scale—by April 30, driven by quiet solar conditions and the absence of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in current NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts. Recent G2 (moderate) watches for April 17-18 stem from a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS), peaking at Kp=6, with activity fading to G1 by April 19 and unsettled levels thereafter; the 27-day outlook shows low geomagnetic indices (A=5-20) through month-end. Solar Cycle 25, past its October 2024 peak, features fewer active regions and minimal flare risk (R3+ at 5%). A sudden X-class flare from a rotating-in sunspot complex could shift odds, but SWPC model consensus indicates negligible threat; monitor daily updates for new observations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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