Meta’s rapid iteration cycle on Muse Spark drives the even odds across early-to-mid October dates for version 1.4 or later. The 1.3 update arrived September 2–3 with notable gains in coding and agentic performance, following 1.2 by roughly four weeks, while CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted upcoming open-weight releases and teased the larger “Watermelon” model. Traders see these factors creating pressure for another incremental update before month-end, yet Meta’s flexible development timelines, focus on efficiency benchmarks, and competition with frontier systems from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google leave no single date dominant. The 13.5% chance of no release by October 31 reflects uncertainty around exact feature thresholds and internal priorities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNext Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
October 26 25%
October 29 25%
October 21 24%
October 22 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
13%
October 2
14%
October 3
8%
October 4
8%
October 5
14%
October 6
14%
October 7
14%
October 8
14%
October 9
15%
October 10
14%
October 11
14%
October 12
14%
October 13
13%
October 14
14%
October 15
8%
October 16
14%
October 17
16%
October 18
14%
October 19
10%
October 20
14%
October 21
24%
October 22
16%
October 23
13%
October 24
16%
October 25
13%
October 26
25%
October 27
13%
October 28
13%
October 29
25%
October 30
16%
October 31
14%
No release by October 31
15%
October 26 25%
October 29 25%
October 21 24%
October 22 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
$0 Wol.
13%
October 2
$0 Wol.
14%
October 3
$0 Wol.
8%
October 4
$0 Wol.
8%
October 5
$0 Wol.
14%
October 6
$0 Wol.
14%
October 7
$0 Wol.
14%
October 8
$0 Wol.
14%
October 9
$0 Wol.
15%
October 10
$0 Wol.
14%
October 11
$0 Wol.
14%
October 12
$0 Wol.
14%
October 13
$0 Wol.
13%
October 14
$0 Wol.
14%
October 15
$0 Wol.
8%
October 16
$0 Wol.
14%
October 17
$0 Wol.
16%
October 18
$0 Wol.
14%
October 19
$0 Wol.
10%
October 20
$0 Wol.
14%
October 21
$0 Wol.
24%
October 22
$0 Wol.
16%
October 23
$0 Wol.
13%
October 24
$0 Wol.
16%
October 25
$0 Wol.
13%
October 26
$0 Wol.
25%
October 27
$0 Wol.
13%
October 28
$0 Wol.
13%
October 29
$0 Wol.
25%
October 30
$0 Wol.
16%
October 31
$0 Wol.
14%
No release by October 31
$0 Wol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid iteration cycle on Muse Spark drives the even odds across early-to-mid October dates for version 1.4 or later. The 1.3 update arrived September 2–3 with notable gains in coding and agentic performance, following 1.2 by roughly four weeks, while CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted upcoming open-weight releases and teased the larger “Watermelon” model. Traders see these factors creating pressure for another incremental update before month-end, yet Meta’s flexible development timelines, focus on efficiency benchmarks, and competition with frontier systems from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google leave no single date dominant. The 13.5% chance of no release by October 31 reflects uncertainty around exact feature thresholds and internal priorities.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Oct 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid iteration cycle on Muse Spark drives the even odds across early-to-mid October dates for version 1.4 or later. The 1.3 update arrived September 2–3 with notable gains in coding and agentic performance, following 1.2 by roughly four weeks, while CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted upcoming open-weight releases and teased the larger “Watermelon” model. Traders see these factors creating pressure for another incremental update before month-end, yet Meta’s flexible development timelines, focus on efficiency benchmarks, and competition with frontier systems from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google leave no single date dominant. The 13.5% chance of no release by October 31 reflects uncertainty around exact feature thresholds and internal priorities.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Oct 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s rapid iteration cycle on Muse Spark drives the even odds across early-to-mid October dates for version 1.4 or later. The 1.3 update arrived September 2–3 with notable gains in coding and agentic performance, following 1.2 by roughly four weeks, while CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted upcoming open-weight releases and teased the larger “Watermelon” model. Traders see these factors creating pressure for another incremental update before month-end, yet Meta’s flexible development timelines, focus on efficiency benchmarks, and competition with frontier systems from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google leave no single date dominant. The 13.5% chance of no release by October 31 reflects uncertainty around exact feature thresholds and internal priorities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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