OpenAI's longstanding practice of anonymously testing frontier large language models on the Arena.AI Chatbot Arena leaderboard before public release drives strong trader consensus for a high-scoring debut by the next model, likely GPT-5.5 codenamed Spud, whose pretraining wrapped in late March. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 17 reclaimed the top overall Elo spot around 1550, edging out OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and intensifying competitive pressure amid benchmarks like SWE-bench. Rumors of Spud's imminent rollout, fueled by recent leaks and OpenAI's $25 billion ARR milestone, position it to challenge for leadership. Traders eye post-release scores checked 12 hours after availability, with resolution by June 30; delays or subpar blind tests could shift sentiment quickly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNext OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?
Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?
NOWE
Jun 30, 2026
1480+
81%
1500+
29%
1520+
5%
$6,127 Wol.
1480+
$1,934 Wol.
81%
1500+
$2,117 Wol.
29%
1520+
$2,075 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".OpenAI's longstanding practice of anonymously testing frontier large language models on the Arena.AI Chatbot Arena leaderboard before public release drives strong trader consensus for a high-scoring debut by the next model, likely GPT-5.5 codenamed Spud, whose pretraining wrapped in late March. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 17 reclaimed the top overall Elo spot around 1550, edging out OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and intensifying competitive pressure amid benchmarks like SWE-bench. Rumors of Spud's imminent rollout, fueled by recent leaks and OpenAI's $25 billion ARR milestone, position it to challenge for leadership. Traders eye post-release scores checked 12 hours after availability, with resolution by June 30; delays or subpar blind tests could shift sentiment quickly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Apr 20, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Wolumen
$6,127Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 20, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".OpenAI's longstanding practice of anonymously testing frontier large language models on the Arena.AI Chatbot Arena leaderboard before public release drives strong trader consensus for a high-scoring debut by the next model, likely GPT-5.5 codenamed Spud, whose pretraining wrapped in late March. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 17 reclaimed the top overall Elo spot around 1550, edging out OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and intensifying competitive pressure amid benchmarks like SWE-bench. Rumors of Spud's imminent rollout, fueled by recent leaks and OpenAI's $25 billion ARR milestone, position it to challenge for leadership. Traders eye post-release scores checked 12 hours after availability, with resolution by June 30; delays or subpar blind tests could shift sentiment quickly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$6,127Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 20, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's longstanding practice of anonymously testing frontier large language models on the Arena.AI Chatbot Arena leaderboard before public release drives strong trader consensus for a high-scoring debut by the next model, likely GPT-5.5 codenamed Spud, whose pretraining wrapped in late March. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 17 reclaimed the top overall Elo spot around 1550, edging out OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and intensifying competitive pressure amid benchmarks like SWE-bench. Rumors of Spud's imminent rollout, fueled by recent leaks and OpenAI's $25 billion ARR milestone, position it to challenge for leadership. Traders eye post-release scores checked 12 hours after availability, with resolution by June 30; delays or subpar blind tests could shift sentiment quickly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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