Sam Altman faces no active criminal charges, indictments, or convictions that would plausibly result in U.S. jail time, anchoring trader consensus at roughly 1% implied probability for incarceration by mid-2026. A late-May 2026 civil lawsuit from Florida’s attorney general targets OpenAI and Altman personally over alleged concealment of ChatGPT risks to users, including minors, but seeks only damages and policy changes with no criminal exposure. Congressional oversight into potential conflicts of interest and older internal reviews have produced no indictments, while recent incidents such as threats against Altman have led to arrests of third parties instead. Civil litigation and regulatory scrutiny in the AI sector rarely escalate to incarceration absent clear fraud or safety violations meeting criminal thresholds, leaving near-term resolution hinges on any unexpected DOJ or state escalation.