North Korea’s pattern of calibrated provocations, including recent short-range ballistic missile launches and limited border crossings tied to fortification work, has not escalated into preparations for large-scale invasion of South Korea. Pyongyang continues to prioritize nuclear and missile expansion alongside deepening military ties with Russia, while rejecting South Korean engagement overtures under President Lee Jae-myung’s “peace first” approach and dismissing U.S. efforts to reduce joint drills for renewed talks. Traders assign the 97.1% probability to “No” because these developments align with historical deterrence patterns, South Korea’s military readiness, and U.S. extended deterrence commitments that have contained conflict since the armistice. Plausible shifts before 2027 remain limited to miscalculation during heightened exercises or abrupt changes in great-power dynamics, though no verified indicators currently point in that direction.