Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show a tight contest among the Linke, CDU, and AfD for the largest share, with the top two often within one to three points and the AfD close behind. This narrow spread, combined with voter volatility and the five-percent threshold filtering smaller parties, sustains uncertainty over the eventual margin of victory for any single contender. The CDU’s transition to a new lead candidate and ongoing investigations involving the SPD contender have added last-minute variables, while coalition arithmetic and district-level shifts further complicate projections. Traders price multiple small-margin outcomes similarly because established polling averages and historical Berlin volatility point to a competitive result unlikely to produce decisive separation before election night.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLinke 0-2% 18%
Linke 2-5% 18%
Linke 5-10% 18%
Linke 10%+ 18%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
18%
Linke 2-5%
18%
Linke 5-10%
18%
Linke 10%+
18%
CDU 0-2%
13%
CDU 2-5%
18%
CDU 5-10%
18%
CDU 10%+
13%
AfD 0-2%
14%
AfD 2-5%
14%
AfD 5%+
14%
Another party wins
18%
Linke 0-2% 18%
Linke 2-5% 18%
Linke 5-10% 18%
Linke 10%+ 18%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
$0 Wol.
18%
Linke 2-5%
$0 Wol.
18%
Linke 5-10%
$0 Wol.
18%
Linke 10%+
$0 Wol.
18%
CDU 0-2%
$0 Wol.
13%
CDU 2-5%
$0 Wol.
18%
CDU 5-10%
$0 Wol.
18%
CDU 10%+
$0 Wol.
13%
AfD 0-2%
$0 Wol.
14%
AfD 2-5%
$0 Wol.
14%
AfD 5%+
$0 Wol.
14%
Another party wins
$0 Wol.
18%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show a tight contest among the Linke, CDU, and AfD for the largest share, with the top two often within one to three points and the AfD close behind. This narrow spread, combined with voter volatility and the five-percent threshold filtering smaller parties, sustains uncertainty over the eventual margin of victory for any single contender. The CDU’s transition to a new lead candidate and ongoing investigations involving the SPD contender have added last-minute variables, while coalition arithmetic and district-level shifts further complicate projections. Traders price multiple small-margin outcomes similarly because established polling averages and historical Berlin volatility point to a competitive result unlikely to produce decisive separation before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show a tight contest among the Linke, CDU, and AfD for the largest share, with the top two often within one to three points and the AfD close behind. This narrow spread, combined with voter volatility and the five-percent threshold filtering smaller parties, sustains uncertainty over the eventual margin of victory for any single contender. The CDU’s transition to a new lead candidate and ongoing investigations involving the SPD contender have added last-minute variables, while coalition arithmetic and district-level shifts further complicate projections. Traders price multiple small-margin outcomes similarly because established polling averages and historical Berlin volatility point to a competitive result unlikely to produce decisive separation before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show a tight contest among the Linke, CDU, and AfD for the largest share, with the top two often within one to three points and the AfD close behind. This narrow spread, combined with voter volatility and the five-percent threshold filtering smaller parties, sustains uncertainty over the eventual margin of victory for any single contender. The CDU’s transition to a new lead candidate and ongoing investigations involving the SPD contender have added last-minute variables, while coalition arithmetic and district-level shifts further complicate projections. Traders price multiple small-margin outcomes similarly because established polling averages and historical Berlin volatility point to a competitive result unlikely to produce decisive separation before election night.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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