Recent August employment data, showing a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate amid rising labor force participation, anchors trader focus on the September reading due October 2. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% (29.5%) and 4.2% (26.0%), markets reflect uncertainty over monthly volatility in household survey results, potential revisions, and influences from immigration policy on labor supply. Cooling wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and FOMC projections centering near 4.3% for Q4 2026 add context, while upcoming inflation data and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could shift rate expectations and hiring momentum. Aggregated trader positions price in these labor market dynamics without assuming a specific outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSeptember Unemployment Rate
September Unemployment Rate
4.1% 30%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 15%
4.3% 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 2, 2026
≤3.8%
5%
3.9%
9%
4.0%
15%
4.1%
30%
4.2%
26%
4.3%
11%
4.4%
5%
4.5%
7%
≥4.6%
4%
4.1% 30%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 15%
4.3% 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 2, 2026
≤3.8%
$585 Wol.
5%
3.9%
$62 Wol.
9%
4.0%
$62 Wol.
15%
4.1%
$442 Wol.
30%
4.2%
$84 Wol.
26%
4.3%
$62 Wol.
11%
4.4%
$176 Wol.
5%
4.5%
$505 Wol.
7%
≥4.6%
$505 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August employment data, showing a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate amid rising labor force participation, anchors trader focus on the September reading due October 2. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% (29.5%) and 4.2% (26.0%), markets reflect uncertainty over monthly volatility in household survey results, potential revisions, and influences from immigration policy on labor supply. Cooling wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and FOMC projections centering near 4.3% for Q4 2026 add context, while upcoming inflation data and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could shift rate expectations and hiring momentum. Aggregated trader positions price in these labor market dynamics without assuming a specific outcome.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,484Data zakończenia
Oct 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August employment data, showing a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate amid rising labor force participation, anchors trader focus on the September reading due October 2. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% (29.5%) and 4.2% (26.0%), markets reflect uncertainty over monthly volatility in household survey results, potential revisions, and influences from immigration policy on labor supply. Cooling wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and FOMC projections centering near 4.3% for Q4 2026 add context, while upcoming inflation data and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could shift rate expectations and hiring momentum. Aggregated trader positions price in these labor market dynamics without assuming a specific outcome.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$2,484Data zakończenia
Oct 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent August employment data, showing a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate amid rising labor force participation, anchors trader focus on the September reading due October 2. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% (29.5%) and 4.2% (26.0%), markets reflect uncertainty over monthly volatility in household survey results, potential revisions, and influences from immigration policy on labor supply. Cooling wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and FOMC projections centering near 4.3% for Q4 2026 add context, while upcoming inflation data and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could shift rate expectations and hiring momentum. Aggregated trader positions price in these labor market dynamics without assuming a specific outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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