Recent July CPI data, showing a modest 0.1% month-over-month rise and 3.4% year-over-year pace, alongside easing energy prices, have anchored trader expectations for August around the Cleveland Fed nowcast of 0.35% headline and 0.20% core. With probabilities clustered between 0.1% and 0.4%, markets reflect uncertainty over shelter moderation, gasoline trends, and potential tariff pass-through effects on goods prices. The August release on September 11 will test whether the recent disinflation path holds or if sticky components push readings higher, consistent with the closely matched implied odds across outcomes.