Recent labor market data, including softer August nonfarm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have driven the tight clustering of probabilities around modest September job gains, with the 50k-100k range holding a narrow 24.5% edge. Traders price in continued cooling from prior months amid the Federal Reserve’s post-rate-cut policy path, moderating wage growth, and mixed signals from ADP private payrolls and JOLTS openings. Key swing factors include potential revisions to prior estimates and sector hiring trends in services versus manufacturing. The upcoming September jobs report, scheduled for early October, remains the primary catalyst that could resolve the current deadlock between sub-50k and 100k-plus scenarios.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many jobs added in September?
How many jobs added in September?
50k to 100k 25%
0 to 50k 22%
100k to 150k 21%
-50k to 0 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 2, 2026
<-50k
9%
-50k to 0
11%
0 to 50k
22%
50k to 100k
25%
100k to 150k
21%
150k to 200k
5%
200k+
8%
50k to 100k 25%
0 to 50k 22%
100k to 150k 21%
-50k to 0 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 2, 2026
<-50k
$248 Wol.
9%
-50k to 0
$337 Wol.
11%
0 to 50k
$199 Wol.
22%
50k to 100k
$159 Wol.
25%
100k to 150k
$261 Wol.
21%
150k to 200k
$260 Wol.
5%
200k+
$424 Wol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market data, including softer August nonfarm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have driven the tight clustering of probabilities around modest September job gains, with the 50k-100k range holding a narrow 24.5% edge. Traders price in continued cooling from prior months amid the Federal Reserve’s post-rate-cut policy path, moderating wage growth, and mixed signals from ADP private payrolls and JOLTS openings. Key swing factors include potential revisions to prior estimates and sector hiring trends in services versus manufacturing. The upcoming September jobs report, scheduled for early October, remains the primary catalyst that could resolve the current deadlock between sub-50k and 100k-plus scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Rynek otwarty: Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,888Data zakończenia
Oct 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market data, including softer August nonfarm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have driven the tight clustering of probabilities around modest September job gains, with the 50k-100k range holding a narrow 24.5% edge. Traders price in continued cooling from prior months amid the Federal Reserve’s post-rate-cut policy path, moderating wage growth, and mixed signals from ADP private payrolls and JOLTS openings. Key swing factors include potential revisions to prior estimates and sector hiring trends in services versus manufacturing. The upcoming September jobs report, scheduled for early October, remains the primary catalyst that could resolve the current deadlock between sub-50k and 100k-plus scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Wolumen
$1,888Data zakończenia
Oct 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market data, including softer August nonfarm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have driven the tight clustering of probabilities around modest September job gains, with the 50k-100k range holding a narrow 24.5% edge. Traders price in continued cooling from prior months amid the Federal Reserve’s post-rate-cut policy path, moderating wage growth, and mixed signals from ADP private payrolls and JOLTS openings. Key swing factors include potential revisions to prior estimates and sector hiring trends in services versus manufacturing. The upcoming September jobs report, scheduled for early October, remains the primary catalyst that could resolve the current deadlock between sub-50k and 100k-plus scenarios.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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