Recent July Core PCE data matching forecasts at 0.2% month-over-month amid hotter-than-expected headline readings and persistent 3.3% year-over-year core inflation has left traders split between 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes for August, each implied at 37% probability. Services price pressures, including housing and financial services, combined with geopolitical energy volatility continue to underpin sticky readings above the Fed’s 2% target, while moderating goods deflation and recent personal income strength introduce downside risks. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the late-September release, with upcoming CPI, PPI, and employment reports serving as key swing factors that could shift consensus on the inflation path and near-term monetary policy expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCore PCE MoM - August 2026
Core PCE MoM - August 2026
0.2% 37%
0.3% 37%
0.1% 12%
0.5%+ 8.1%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
2%
0.0%
6%
0.1%
12%
0.2%
37%
0.3%
37%
0.4%
8%
0.5%+
8%
0.2% 37%
0.3% 37%
0.1% 12%
0.5%+ 8.1%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
$37 Wol.
2%
0.0%
$37 Wol.
6%
0.1%
$57 Wol.
12%
0.2%
$582 Wol.
37%
0.3%
$457 Wol.
37%
0.4%
$110 Wol.
8%
0.5%+
$73 Wol.
8%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core PCE data matching forecasts at 0.2% month-over-month amid hotter-than-expected headline readings and persistent 3.3% year-over-year core inflation has left traders split between 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes for August, each implied at 37% probability. Services price pressures, including housing and financial services, combined with geopolitical energy volatility continue to underpin sticky readings above the Fed’s 2% target, while moderating goods deflation and recent personal income strength introduce downside risks. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the late-September release, with upcoming CPI, PPI, and employment reports serving as key swing factors that could shift consensus on the inflation path and near-term monetary policy expectations.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,353Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core PCE data matching forecasts at 0.2% month-over-month amid hotter-than-expected headline readings and persistent 3.3% year-over-year core inflation has left traders split between 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes for August, each implied at 37% probability. Services price pressures, including housing and financial services, combined with geopolitical energy volatility continue to underpin sticky readings above the Fed’s 2% target, while moderating goods deflation and recent personal income strength introduce downside risks. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the late-September release, with upcoming CPI, PPI, and employment reports serving as key swing factors that could shift consensus on the inflation path and near-term monetary policy expectations.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Wolumen
$1,353Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July Core PCE data matching forecasts at 0.2% month-over-month amid hotter-than-expected headline readings and persistent 3.3% year-over-year core inflation has left traders split between 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes for August, each implied at 37% probability. Services price pressures, including housing and financial services, combined with geopolitical energy volatility continue to underpin sticky readings above the Fed’s 2% target, while moderating goods deflation and recent personal income strength introduce downside risks. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the late-September release, with upcoming CPI, PPI, and employment reports serving as key swing factors that could shift consensus on the inflation path and near-term monetary policy expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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