Republican incumbent John McGuire holds a strong position in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by the seat’s R+6 partisan lean and ratings classifying it as solid or likely Republican from nonpartisan forecasters. McGuire secured his nomination with 84 percent in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Tom Perriello, who previously represented the district from 2009 to 2011, won his primary with 80 percent. A single late-July poll showed McGuire ahead by three points. The failed mid-decade redistricting effort preserved existing boundaries favoring Republicans, limiting Democratic opportunities despite Perriello’s fundraising and name recognition. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 85 percent implied probability consistent with the district’s structural advantages and limited polling movement since primaries concluded.