Russian forces have conducted repeated but limited assaults near Prymorske west of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, yet independent assessments through early August 2026 show no sustained Russian control over southern portions of the settlement. Ukrainian units have repelled incremental advances toward Prymorske and nearby Plavni through counterattacks and defensive actions, while Russian sources confirm ongoing localized fighting without confirmed full occupation. These frontline dynamics, including Ukrainian pressure that has forced Russian small groups to retreat from parts of the area in prior months and the attritional nature of combat, shape trader consensus around low implied probability for complete Russian capture by late September 2026. Resolution depends on verified territorial control per mapping sources, with manpower, artillery, and drone support remaining key variables that could influence outcomes amid broader summer campaign developments in southeastern Ukraine.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Russia capture Prymorske by...?
Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?
$88,370 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
September 30
3%
December 31
18%
$88,370 Wol.
September 30
$49,000 Wol.
3%
December 31
$22,160 Wol.
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png
Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png
Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated but limited assaults near Prymorske west of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, yet independent assessments through early August 2026 show no sustained Russian control over southern portions of the settlement. Ukrainian units have repelled incremental advances toward Prymorske and nearby Plavni through counterattacks and defensive actions, while Russian sources confirm ongoing localized fighting without confirmed full occupation. These frontline dynamics, including Ukrainian pressure that has forced Russian small groups to retreat from parts of the area in prior months and the attritional nature of combat, shape trader consensus around low implied probability for complete Russian capture by late September 2026. Resolution depends on verified territorial control per mapping sources, with manpower, artillery, and drone support remaining key variables that could influence outcomes amid broader summer campaign developments in southeastern Ukraine.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png
Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png
Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png
Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png
Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$88,370Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png
Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png
Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated but limited assaults near Prymorske west of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, yet independent assessments through early August 2026 show no sustained Russian control over southern portions of the settlement. Ukrainian units have repelled incremental advances toward Prymorske and nearby Plavni through counterattacks and defensive actions, while Russian sources confirm ongoing localized fighting without confirmed full occupation. These frontline dynamics, including Ukrainian pressure that has forced Russian small groups to retreat from parts of the area in prior months and the attritional nature of combat, shape trader consensus around low implied probability for complete Russian capture by late September 2026. Resolution depends on verified territorial control per mapping sources, with manpower, artillery, and drone support remaining key variables that could influence outcomes amid broader summer campaign developments in southeastern Ukraine.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png
Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png
Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png
Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png
Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Wolumen
$88,370Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted repeated but limited assaults near Prymorske west of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, yet independent assessments through early August 2026 show no sustained Russian control over southern portions of the settlement. Ukrainian units have repelled incremental advances toward Prymorske and nearby Plavni through counterattacks and defensive actions, while Russian sources confirm ongoing localized fighting without confirmed full occupation. These frontline dynamics, including Ukrainian pressure that has forced Russian small groups to retreat from parts of the area in prior months and the attritional nature of combat, shape trader consensus around low implied probability for complete Russian capture by late September 2026. Resolution depends on verified territorial control per mapping sources, with manpower, artillery, and drone support remaining key variables that could influence outcomes amid broader summer campaign developments in southeastern Ukraine.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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