Apple’s internal shift away from headset development drives the 96% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported in May and June 2026 that the category sits “on ice” while engineers address weight, cost, and design barriers, pushing any successor to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest; the lighter Vision Air project was cancelled last year. Ming-Chi Kuo separately noted that incoming CEO John Ternus redirected resources toward AI smart glasses slated for late 2027 and waveguide-based AR glasses around 2029, following the original Vision Pro’s M5 refresh in 2025. Trader consensus reflects consistent supply-chain and analyst alignment rather than speculation. A sudden engineering breakthrough or strategy reversal under new leadership could theoretically accelerate timelines, though current evidence shows no active path to a 2026 launch.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoApple Vision Pro 2 lançado antes de 2027?
Apple Vision Pro 2 lançado antes de 2027?
Sim
4% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
4% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s internal shift away from headset development drives the 96% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported in May and June 2026 that the category sits “on ice” while engineers address weight, cost, and design barriers, pushing any successor to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest; the lighter Vision Air project was cancelled last year. Ming-Chi Kuo separately noted that incoming CEO John Ternus redirected resources toward AI smart glasses slated for late 2027 and waveguide-based AR glasses around 2029, following the original Vision Pro’s M5 refresh in 2025. Trader consensus reflects consistent supply-chain and analyst alignment rather than speculation. A sudden engineering breakthrough or strategy reversal under new leadership could theoretically accelerate timelines, though current evidence shows no active path to a 2026 launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,272Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s internal shift away from headset development drives the 96% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported in May and June 2026 that the category sits “on ice” while engineers address weight, cost, and design barriers, pushing any successor to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest; the lighter Vision Air project was cancelled last year. Ming-Chi Kuo separately noted that incoming CEO John Ternus redirected resources toward AI smart glasses slated for late 2027 and waveguide-based AR glasses around 2029, following the original Vision Pro’s M5 refresh in 2025. Trader consensus reflects consistent supply-chain and analyst alignment rather than speculation. A sudden engineering breakthrough or strategy reversal under new leadership could theoretically accelerate timelines, though current evidence shows no active path to a 2026 launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,272Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s internal shift away from headset development drives the 96% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported in May and June 2026 that the category sits “on ice” while engineers address weight, cost, and design barriers, pushing any successor to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest; the lighter Vision Air project was cancelled last year. Ming-Chi Kuo separately noted that incoming CEO John Ternus redirected resources toward AI smart glasses slated for late 2027 and waveguide-based AR glasses around 2029, following the original Vision Pro’s M5 refresh in 2025. Trader consensus reflects consistent supply-chain and analyst alignment rather than speculation. A sudden engineering breakthrough or strategy reversal under new leadership could theoretically accelerate timelines, though current evidence shows no active path to a 2026 launch.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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