Apple's established annual flagship smartphone release cycle underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new iPhone model each September for over a decade, with the iPhone 16 arriving in 2024 and the iPhone 17 expected in 2025, making the next iteration a natural continuation. No official statements or supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a longer cycle or skipped year. While major redesigns or component delays have occasionally adjusted timelines in the past, current manufacturing patterns and competitive pressures from rivals like Samsung and Google support steady progression. Realistic disruptions remain possible through regulatory hurdles or unforeseen technical challenges, but historical precedent drives the strong trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
$112,552 Vol.
$112,552 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$112,552 Vol.
$112,552 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual flagship smartphone release cycle underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new iPhone model each September for over a decade, with the iPhone 16 arriving in 2024 and the iPhone 17 expected in 2025, making the next iteration a natural continuation. No official statements or supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a longer cycle or skipped year. While major redesigns or component delays have occasionally adjusted timelines in the past, current manufacturing patterns and competitive pressures from rivals like Samsung and Google support steady progression. Realistic disruptions remain possible through regulatory hurdles or unforeseen technical challenges, but historical precedent drives the strong trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$112,552Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual flagship smartphone release cycle underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new iPhone model each September for over a decade, with the iPhone 16 arriving in 2024 and the iPhone 17 expected in 2025, making the next iteration a natural continuation. No official statements or supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a longer cycle or skipped year. While major redesigns or component delays have occasionally adjusted timelines in the past, current manufacturing patterns and competitive pressures from rivals like Samsung and Google support steady progression. Realistic disruptions remain possible through regulatory hurdles or unforeseen technical challenges, but historical precedent drives the strong trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$112,552Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual flagship smartphone release cycle underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has introduced a new iPhone model each September for over a decade, with the iPhone 16 arriving in 2024 and the iPhone 17 expected in 2025, making the next iteration a natural continuation. No official statements or supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a longer cycle or skipped year. While major redesigns or component delays have occasionally adjusted timelines in the past, current manufacturing patterns and competitive pressures from rivals like Samsung and Google support steady progression. Realistic disruptions remain possible through regulatory hurdles or unforeseen technical challenges, but historical precedent drives the strong trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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