Apple's consistent annual fall release cadence for flagship iPhones underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Recent reporting from multiple outlets confirms plans to introduce the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max alongside a potential foldable model in September 2026, aligning with the company's historical pattern of unveiling new hardware each year since the original iPhone. While some indications point to a staggered rollout that could push base models into early 2027, the premium variants remain on track for 2026 availability. Realistic risks such as supply-chain disruptions, major redesign delays, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles could still shift timelines, though trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a full-year skip given Apple's established development pipeline and competitive pressures in the smartphone market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
$112,633 Vol.
$112,633 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$112,633 Vol.
$112,633 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual fall release cadence for flagship iPhones underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Recent reporting from multiple outlets confirms plans to introduce the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max alongside a potential foldable model in September 2026, aligning with the company's historical pattern of unveiling new hardware each year since the original iPhone. While some indications point to a staggered rollout that could push base models into early 2027, the premium variants remain on track for 2026 availability. Realistic risks such as supply-chain disruptions, major redesign delays, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles could still shift timelines, though trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a full-year skip given Apple's established development pipeline and competitive pressures in the smartphone market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$112,633Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual fall release cadence for flagship iPhones underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Recent reporting from multiple outlets confirms plans to introduce the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max alongside a potential foldable model in September 2026, aligning with the company's historical pattern of unveiling new hardware each year since the original iPhone. While some indications point to a staggered rollout that could push base models into early 2027, the premium variants remain on track for 2026 availability. Realistic risks such as supply-chain disruptions, major redesign delays, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles could still shift timelines, though trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a full-year skip given Apple's established development pipeline and competitive pressures in the smartphone market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$112,633Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual fall release cadence for flagship iPhones underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Recent reporting from multiple outlets confirms plans to introduce the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max alongside a potential foldable model in September 2026, aligning with the company's historical pattern of unveiling new hardware each year since the original iPhone. While some indications point to a staggered rollout that could push base models into early 2027, the premium variants remain on track for 2026 availability. Realistic risks such as supply-chain disruptions, major redesign delays, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles could still shift timelines, though trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a full-year skip given Apple's established development pipeline and competitive pressures in the smartphone market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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