Apple's consistent annual September release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the 96.3% implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches market in 2026. Recent supply chain reports and analyst briefings confirm the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will launch alongside Apple's first foldable device that fall, maintaining the pattern established over nearly two decades despite a rumored split schedule that could shift the base iPhone 18 and related variants to early 2027. This segmentation reflects efforts to prioritize premium hardware margins and new form factors without disrupting the core development timeline. Realistic risks such as production delays or regulatory hurdles on components remain low-probability given Apple's track record and advance planning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
$112,632 Vol.
$112,632 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$112,632 Vol.
$112,632 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual September release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the 96.3% implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches market in 2026. Recent supply chain reports and analyst briefings confirm the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will launch alongside Apple's first foldable device that fall, maintaining the pattern established over nearly two decades despite a rumored split schedule that could shift the base iPhone 18 and related variants to early 2027. This segmentation reflects efforts to prioritize premium hardware margins and new form factors without disrupting the core development timeline. Realistic risks such as production delays or regulatory hurdles on components remain low-probability given Apple's track record and advance planning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$112,632Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual September release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the 96.3% implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches market in 2026. Recent supply chain reports and analyst briefings confirm the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will launch alongside Apple's first foldable device that fall, maintaining the pattern established over nearly two decades despite a rumored split schedule that could shift the base iPhone 18 and related variants to early 2027. This segmentation reflects efforts to prioritize premium hardware margins and new form factors without disrupting the core development timeline. Realistic risks such as production delays or regulatory hurdles on components remain low-probability given Apple's track record and advance planning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$112,632Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual September release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the 96.3% implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches market in 2026. Recent supply chain reports and analyst briefings confirm the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will launch alongside Apple's first foldable device that fall, maintaining the pattern established over nearly two decades despite a rumored split schedule that could shift the base iPhone 18 and related variants to early 2027. This segmentation reflects efforts to prioritize premium hardware margins and new form factors without disrupting the core development timeline. Realistic risks such as production delays or regulatory hurdles on components remain low-probability given Apple's track record and advance planning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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