The Bank of Israel Monetary Committee's March 30 decision to hold the benchmark interest rate at 4%—its second straight pause—has kept trader consensus tightly clustered around no change at 50%, with decrease at 45.5% a close contender and increase at 43.5%, reflecting balanced risks ahead of the July 6 announcement. Upside inflation pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict, dubbed Operation Roaring Lion, elevated energy prices, and a projected 5.3% fiscal deficit in 2026 prompted the hold, despite trimmed 3.8% GDP growth forecasts and forward guidance for rates at 3.5%-3.75% within a year. Traders await May 28 policy signals, April-May CPI readings capturing war impacts, and potential de-escalation by late April, any of which could tip toward easing if inflation stabilizes near the 1-3% target or toward hikes if risks intensify.