Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Margem de Vitória da Eleição da Casa CA-20
Política·Eleições Para A Câmara

Margem de Vitória da Eleição da Casa CA-20

icon for Margem de Vitória da Eleição da Casa CA-20
Política·Eleições Para A Câmara

Margem de Vitória da Eleição da Casa CA-20

Republicano 25-30% 43%

Republicano 35-40% 43%

Republicano 15-20% 43%

Republicano 45%+ 43%

Polymarket
NOVO

Republicano 25-30% 43%

Republicano 35-40% 43%

Republicano 15-20% 43%

Republicano 45%+ 43%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Republicano 45%+

Republicano 45%+

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Republicano 40-45%

Republicano 40-45%

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Republicano 35-40%

Republicano 35-40%

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Republicano 30-35%

Republicano 30-35%

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Republicano 25-30%

Republicano 25-30%

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Republicano 20-25%

Republicano 20-25%

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Republicano 15-20%

Republicano 15-20%

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Republicano 5-15%

Republicano 5-15%

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Republicano 0-5%

Republicano 0-5%

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Democrata vence

Democrata vence

$10 Vol.

42%

The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Vince Fong and Democratic challenger Sandra Van Scotter advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 20th congressional district, with Fong securing roughly 68% of the vote. The district carries an R+16 partisan lean and has favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, including Fong's 2024 general election win. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its Central Valley voter base and limited recent polling shifts. Market pricing across margin ranges and candidate outcomes captures uncertainty over turnout, campaign spending, and any late-cycle national factors that could influence the final spread ahead of the November 3 general election. No major developments have altered the structural advantages in the past month.

The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Vince Fong and Democratic challenger Sandra Van Scotter advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 20th congressional district, with Fong securing roughly 68% of the vote. The district carries an R+16 partisan lean and has favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, including Fong's 2024 general election win. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its Central Valley voter base and limited recent polling shifts. Market pricing across margin ranges and candidate outcomes captures uncertainty over turnout, campaign spending, and any late-cycle national factors that could influence the final spread ahead of the November 3 general election. No major developments have altered the structural advantages in the past month.

The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Relacionado

icon for Um candidato do Partido Democrata vencerá a eleição para a Câmara de CA-19 em 2026 com 40%-45%?

Um candidato do Partido Democrata vencerá a eleição para a Câmara de CA-19 em 2026 com 40%-45%?

42%
Sim
icon for Um candidato do Partido Republicano vencerá a eleição para a Câmara CA-21 de 2026 por uma margem de 0% a 5%?

Um candidato do Partido Republicano vencerá a eleição para a Câmara CA-21 de 2026 por uma margem de 0% a 5%?

48%
Sim
icon for Um candidato do Partido Democrata vencerá a eleição para a Câmara de CA-10 em 2026 com 55% ou mais?

Um candidato do Partido Democrata vencerá a eleição para a Câmara de CA-10 em 2026 com 55% ou mais?

43%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Margem de Vitória da Eleição da Casa CA-20" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Republicano 25-30%" at 44%, followed by "Republicano 45%+" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Margem de Vitória da Eleição da Casa CA-20" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Margem de Vitória da Eleição da Casa CA-20," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Margem de Vitória da Eleição da Casa CA-20" is "Republicano 25-30%" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republicano 45%+" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Margem de Vitória da Eleição da Casa CA-20" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.