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icon for CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?
Clima E Ciência·Pandemias

CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?

icon for CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?
Clima E Ciência·Pandemias

CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$72,000 Vol.

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$72,000 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No Level 4 CDC Travel Health Notice appears imminent by year-end, supporting the 75% market-implied probability.** CDC Level 4 notices, which advise avoiding all travel due to extreme health risks with no effective precautions, remain unused as of mid-June 2026. Current notices top out at Level 2 for circulating poliovirus (updated March 2026 to include Laos and Namibia) and select Level 1 alerts for dengue, chikungunya, hepatitis A, and global measles. These reflect ongoing but contained transmission patterns monitored by CDC surveillance, without the uncontrolled outbreaks or novel pathogens that historically trigger Level 4 status, such as peak COVID-19 surges. No recent model runs, case thresholds, or official CDC/NOAA-style escalations point to conditions that would meet Level 4 criteria—extreme risk without mitigation options—before December 31. Traders appear to weigh the low baseline likelihood of rapid escalation against routine seasonal and endemic activity, with upcoming surveillance updates unlikely to shift this assessment absent a major emergence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$72,000
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No Level 4 CDC Travel Health Notice appears imminent by year-end, supporting the 75% market-implied probability.** CDC Level 4 notices, which advise avoiding all travel due to extreme health risks with no effective precautions, remain unused as of mid-June 2026. Current notices top out at Level 2 for circulating poliovirus (updated March 2026 to include Laos and Namibia) and select Level 1 alerts for dengue, chikungunya, hepatitis A, and global measles. These reflect ongoing but contained transmission patterns monitored by CDC surveillance, without the uncontrolled outbreaks or novel pathogens that historically trigger Level 4 status, such as peak COVID-19 surges. No recent model runs, case thresholds, or official CDC/NOAA-style escalations point to conditions that would meet Level 4 criteria—extreme risk without mitigation options—before December 31. Traders appear to weigh the low baseline likelihood of rapid escalation against routine seasonal and endemic activity, with upcoming surveillance updates unlikely to shift this assessment absent a major emergence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$72,000
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?" has generated $72K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?" is "CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.