Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daytime maxima near 30–32°C for Istanbul on July 22, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow. These patterns align with July climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C, though the Bosphorus sea breeze and urban heat island effects introduce 1–2°C variability in the daily peak. The closely bunched market odds around 28–29°C reflect this forecast consensus alongside modest uncertainty in exact resolution timing and microscale influences, while the 21.6% implied probability for 34°C or higher accounts for potential model underestimation of adiabatic warming or subsidence. Updated runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Istambul em 22 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Istambul em 22 de julho?
34°C ou mais 100.0%
24°C ou menos <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$127,620 Vol.
$127,620 Vol.
22 jul 2026
24°C ou menos
Não
25°C
Não
26°C
Não
27°C
Não
28°C
Não
29°C
Não
30°C
Não
31°C
Não
32°C
Não
33°C
Não
34°C ou mais
Sim
34°C ou mais 100.0%
24°C ou menos <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$127,620 Vol.
$127,620 Vol.
22 jul 2026
24°C ou menos
$551 Vol.
Não
25°C
$1,197 Vol.
Não
26°C
$1,779 Vol.
Não
27°C
$2,854 Vol.
Não
28°C
$6,723 Vol.
Não
29°C
$9,604 Vol.
Não
30°C
$9,341 Vol.
Não
31°C
$44,492 Vol.
Não
32°C
$14,256 Vol.
Não
33°C
$7,510 Vol.
Não
34°C ou mais
$29,312 Vol.
Sim
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daytime maxima near 30–32°C for Istanbul on July 22, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow. These patterns align with July climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C, though the Bosphorus sea breeze and urban heat island effects introduce 1–2°C variability in the daily peak. The closely bunched market odds around 28–29°C reflect this forecast consensus alongside modest uncertainty in exact resolution timing and microscale influences, while the 21.6% implied probability for 34°C or higher accounts for potential model underestimation of adiabatic warming or subsidence. Updated runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 20, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$127,620Data de Término
22 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daytime maxima near 30–32°C for Istanbul on July 22, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow. These patterns align with July climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C, though the Bosphorus sea breeze and urban heat island effects introduce 1–2°C variability in the daily peak. The closely bunched market odds around 28–29°C reflect this forecast consensus alongside modest uncertainty in exact resolution timing and microscale influences, while the 21.6% implied probability for 34°C or higher accounts for potential model underestimation of adiabatic warming or subsidence. Updated runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$127,620Data de Término
22 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the ECMWF and GFS indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daytime maxima near 30–32°C for Istanbul on July 22, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow. These patterns align with July climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C, though the Bosphorus sea breeze and urban heat island effects introduce 1–2°C variability in the daily peak. The closely bunched market odds around 28–29°C reflect this forecast consensus alongside modest uncertainty in exact resolution timing and microscale influences, while the 21.6% implied probability for 34°C or higher accounts for potential model underestimation of adiabatic warming or subsidence. Updated runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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