Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18 (97% implied probability), aligning with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's (SMN) latest extended forecast projecting maxima of 30–35°C in the surrounding Estado de México amid a persistent anticyclonic circulation at mid-atmospheric levels that has sustained a regional heat wave. Recent observations recorded 28°C highs on April 15–16, exceeding April's climatological average of 26–27°C, with minimal cloud cover and solar heating driving the warmth. Model consensus from SMN guidance supports this positioning, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains—scenarios like intensified showers from the approaching Frente Frío 45 or unmodeled cloud development could suppress peaks below 26°C, with updates expected in daily SMN briefings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 18?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 18?
26°C or higher 96.8%
25°C 1.3%
24°C 1.1%
18°C <1%
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
97%
26°C or higher 96.8%
25°C 1.3%
24°C 1.1%
18°C <1%
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
97%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 1:53 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18 (97% implied probability), aligning with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's (SMN) latest extended forecast projecting maxima of 30–35°C in the surrounding Estado de México amid a persistent anticyclonic circulation at mid-atmospheric levels that has sustained a regional heat wave. Recent observations recorded 28°C highs on April 15–16, exceeding April's climatological average of 26–27°C, with minimal cloud cover and solar heating driving the warmth. Model consensus from SMN guidance supports this positioning, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains—scenarios like intensified showers from the approaching Frente Frío 45 or unmodeled cloud development could suppress peaks below 26°C, with updates expected in daily SMN briefings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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